Preview by Jake Weinstock
This morning, #24 ranked Tulane, 9-1 (6-0), will face a Florida Atlantic team fighting for their bowl-eligibility, 4-6 (3-3), on Senior Day, as pointed out by THE Captain, Nick Anderson, on this week’s pre-game podcast. Kickoff is at 11:00 a.m. CT on ESPN+. While Tulane remains the only “Group of 5” school ranked in this week’s College Football Playoff Poll, there is simply no margin for error, as they have slipped from #23 to #24. More importantly, Tulane is one of three (3) undefeated teams in AAC conference play at 6-0, with Memphis just behind at 5-1, all vying for two (2) spots in the Championship Game, to be played on December 2.
In 2013, the last and only time Tulane traveled to FAU, the then 6-2 Green Wave were riding high off a 4-game win streak, having just achieved bowl eligibility for the first time since 2002. Little did we know at the time that it was the absolute peak of the mountain for Curtis Johnson and the beginning of the end for that regime. Tulane was clobbered by Florida Atlantic in the second half, despite leading 17-7 at the break (the Owls won 34-17). That began a 1-4 finish to the 2013 season, which was of course followed by a pair of 3-9 campaigns in 2014 and 2015, before the merciful arrival of Coach Fritz in December of 2015. On that sunny afternoon in Boca Raton, in November of 2013, the Green Wave offense was buried by ineptitude caused in large part due to injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Nick Montana and Devin Powell combined to complete 11 of 31 attempts, for just 105 yards, and 4 interceptions. That FAU team was 2-6 at the time, also on the brink of losing their bowl eligibility, and ended up finishing 6-6.
Ten years later, almost to the day, Tulane comes to town on an eight (8) game winning streak, but certainly has some injuries to contend with, primarily on the offensive side of the ball. The Green Wave have mustered just three (3) offensive touchdowns in the last ten (10) quarters of play, dating back to halftime of the Rice game on October 28. Here’s why today’s game will be different, despite the parallels to 2013, and despite facing yet another plucky FAU team with a chip on their shoulder; depth, culture, and belief. Like so many Tulane teams of the 2000’s and 2010’s, the 2013 squad, despite being the only bowl team at this University between 2002 and 2018 had very little depth, a weak culture, and even less belief.
The Green Wave will be without one of their top running backs in Shaadie Clayton-Johnson, and could very well be down three (3) of their four (4) top receivers, as none of Lawrence Keys III, Jha’Quann Jackson, or Yulkeith Brown were available by the end of last week’s game. The depth is there, however, should it be “Next Man Up” for the Green Wave. Chris Brazzell, II is an emerging superstar, Bryce Bohanon is a sure-handed slot receiver that has made the most of limited opportunities and Dontae Fleming is about to find his footing. Makhi Hughes, of course, is the first freshman running back in school history to top 1,000 yards, and enters Saturday with at least 100 yards in six (6) consecutive games. And then there’s QB1, Michael Pratt, who has played hurt, has made plays inside and outside of the structure of the offense, and is looking for that breakout performance.
On paper, this is a stronger defense than that of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, which endlessly frustrated the Green Wave offense after the first quarter last week. The Owls boast the 37th best rushing defense in the country (out of 133 FBS qualifiers), and allow just 3.8 yards per carry. They are 31st in the nation in takeaways, averaging 1.7 per game, but are still vulnerable through the air. FAU has is allowing the 93rd fewest passing yards per game (246.9) in the country and is 60th in scoring defense (26.4 points per game) – expect the over in both statistics for Tulane, today, as the Owls allow an average of 138.4 average passer rating to their opponents.
The Owls’ offense has been almost entirely driven by LaJohntay Wester, who leads the FBS in both targets (129) and receptions (92). He has the 8th most receiving yards (1,038) and is tied for 19th in touchdowns with 8. He has commanded an insanely high target share of 39% and will be a handful for Cam Pedescleaux, as he has lined up in the slot on 72% of his snaps. To illustrate how dependent the passing game has been on Wester, who is averaging 9.2 receptions per game, Tony Johnson has the second most receptions on the team with 31, all season (FAU has played 10 games).
Further, there is signal in where Wester is targeted; of the 15 FBS receivers to have amassed 900 yards or more through this point in the season, he has the second-lowest average depth of target (8.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage). This correlates with quarterback Daniel Richardson’s average time to throw (snap of ball to release from the passer), a lightening quick 2.46 seconds. Despite that, however, and despite FAU’s clear preference to get the ball into playmakers’ hands in a hurry, the Owls have been vulnerable to pressures and sacks. In 3 of the Owls’ last 4 games, they have surrendered at least 11 pressures and at least 5 sacks. Unsurprisingly, they have lost those same 3 games, coming in with just 1 win in their last 4 contests (Charlotte). On the season, FAU has allowed the 93rd fewest sacks (2.6 per game).
Richardson, a Central Michigan transfer, took over for Casey Thompson after an ACL tear in a September loss at Clemson, and has performed admirably overall, but has struggled mightily when quick pressures have been surrendered. While he has shown more of a propensity to scramble over these past 2 games, Tulane must generate pressure, even if only ~10-15% of those pressures are converted into sacks. Blitzing does not appear to be the answer, however, as Richardson’s numbers against the blitz, through 7 starts, have been better across the board than they have been against 3 and 4 man rushes.
Outside of Wester, Richardson has gotten little help, this year, as evidenced by taking his completion percentage of 62.7% and comparing it to his adjusted completion percentage of 74.2%, when drops are filtered out. Expect this Owls’ offense to lean heavily into their passing game, as only 17 of the other 132 FBS programs have called pass plays on a higher percentage of offensive snaps than FAU. While the bread and butter of the Owls’ offense is the quick passing game, they have punished defenses for walking the safeties into the box and corners for sitting on underneath routes; in 7 starts, Richardson already has a total of 19 completions that traveled at least 20 yards down field, in the air.
While Wester has been fantastic, and Richardson has performed well at times, this is an offense that Tulane’s uneven pass rush and pass defense should be able to stand up to. The Owls are 99th in the FBS in total offense, 97th in punts per offensive score, 91st in 3rd down conversions, 89th in points per play, 83rd in scoring (23.8 points per game), are turning the ball over 1.6 times per game, and have rushed for just 3.5 yards per carry against FBS opponents (105th best such average in the country). Against East Carolina, in a 22-7 loss last week, the Owls gained more 30 yards on only one (1) of their thirteen (13) possessions. Do not expect a plethora of penalties to keep them behind the sticks, however, as only five (5) FBS schools have been penalized less this season than Florida Atlantic.
Predictions:
Jake: Expect Tulane’s depth to be a major factor, today, as both the pass rush and the passing offense get rolling. We project 3-4 sacks of Richardson, 100+ yards from Makhi Hughes, 280 from Michael Pratt, with 3 tosses into the endzone for scores, as Tulane inches closer to its first undefeated conference record since 1998. P.S. I picked the score of 31-20 before Kelly did. Tulane 31-20.
Kelly: While I hate that I agree with Jake on the game prediction, I think he’s right on the money. Tulane 31-20.