Preview by Jake Weinstock
February 21, 2023. Just over nine months ago. That was the date that the 2023 American Athletic Conference Football Schedule was released, and that was the date we knew there would be some major implications for Conference Championship Weekend, in this one. #23 Tulane, 10-1 (7-0), hosts the king of the Conference USA newcomers, UTSA, 8-3 (7-0). This afternoon’s game will be played at Yulman Stadium at 2:30 p.m., and broadcast on ABC.
The Roadrunners are not only 7-0 in their first season in the AAC, but they are also the two-time defending Conference USA champions, having won the league in 2021 and 2022, prior to their departure, this past summer. Do not be fooled by the 8-3 record, either, as UTSA is 8-1 with Frank Harris in the lineup, having won eight (8) straight with Harris and seven (7) straight, overall. The Tulane Green Wave will put their nine-game (9) winning streak on the line, as well, this afternoon.
The winner of this heavyweight battle will be guaranteed a spot in next weekend’s Conference Championship and the loser would need a Navy win in Dallas over 9-2 SMU and a favorable printout from the computer system tiebreaker on Sunday afternoon. For Tulane’s purposes, the path is simple: go 1-0 today and the American Athletic Conference Championship will be played at Yulman Stadium for the second year in a row, with all of this team’s goals still out in front of them. We won’t discuss what those are because this NIL Collective has a 1-0 mindset and a 1-0 mindset, only.
Standing between Tulane and that 1-0 finish, however, is this UTSA offense, which could credibly be described as the best the Green Wave have faced, this season (Ole Miss, Memphis, and North Texas are the other contenders for that title). Out of 133 FBS schools, the Roadrunners are 21st in points per game, 26th in yards per game, 37th in points per possession, 34th in punts per offensive score, and are the nation’s 14th best most successful team on 3rd down (47%). They also operate at a lightening fast pace, as only twenty (20) teams let fewer seconds pass by between snaps. Conditioning and stamina will be very, very important for this Tulane front six, today, and opportunities to substitute mid-possession may be at a minimum. Expect the Green Wave to use each and every opportunity that they have to substitute and slow the pace down (these would only be legitimately granted by a UTSA substitution or a dead ball).
The Roadrunner offense starts with lefty quarterback Frank Harris, in his seventh year with the program. Harris has only produced 8 turnover worthy plays in 333 dropbacks, per PFF, an impressively low percentage of (2.3%). Harris’ adjusted completion percentage is over 71%, his pressure-to-sack rate is a respectable 14.6%, and he’s been aggressive, with an average depth of target above 10.5 yards down field in his last 4 games (he holds an average of 9.9 on the season). He’s been effective at beating the blitz, too, completing 61% of his passes with an average of 8.2 yards per attempt against 5+ rushers. When pressured, however, his numbers fall off of a cliff. His completion percentage when pressured is 38% versus 72% when kept clean.
Overall, the Roadrunners’ offense is shotgun-gun based and incorporates a tremendous amount of post-snap RPO (Read Pass Option) usage. When teams have walked a safety into the box or brought a third linebacker onto the field, to try and change their alignment and take away those quick hitting windows, off of an RPO, Harris and the Roadrunners have been quick to pivot to true play action (that attempts to mirror an RPO look), and take their shots down the field. In nine (9) starts, Harris has hit on a total of twenty (20) throws that traveled at least twenty (20) yards down field, in the air.
When given opportunities to make plays after the catch, i.e.when there have been busts or “too much air in the coverage,” these Roadrunner receivers have made defenses pay. Josh Cephus leads the way with 76 receptions on 102 targets, for 966 yards and 9 touchdowns. He will line up primarily in the slot (60% of the time), but the Wave will need to keep an eye on him, because he’ll split out wide a fair amount, as well (36% of his snaps). Devin McCuin and Tykee Ogle-Kellogg are two that should command attention, down the field, as the pair have 68 catches and 1,003 yards, between them, with average depths of target of 12.7 and 15.0 yards down field, respectively. Tight end Oscar Cardenas operates as a safety net for Harris, with his 28 catches for 259 yards and an average depth of target of 5.5 yards.
The UTSA running game has been its most effective as of late, as Harris’ increased health while working his way back from a September injury have led to the inclusion of more designed runs from the quarterback, giving defenses yet another weapon to defend. Running back Robert Henry, who has 527 yards on 102 carries (5.2 yards per attempt) and 9 touchdowns should see a healthy number of the touches today, as Kevorian Barnes would appear to be questionable. Barnes missed the team’s game against Rice two weeks ago and dressed last week, but only participated in a few snaps. Despite that, Barnes leads the team with 126 carries and 600 yards (4.8 yards per attempt) with 6 touchdowns.
Perhaps equally tough is the UTSA defense, which is 29th in the nation in both yards per carry from their opponent (3.8) and yards per attempt from opposing passers (6.7). This Roadrunner defense, which will play with four down linemen and three safeties, is 17th in sack percentage, 28th in completion percentage allowed, but is still surrendering the 85th most passing yards per game (due in part to playing from ahead). North Texas laid out the path to beat the Roadrunners, in their November 4 loss (by a score of 37-29); throw on early downs. The Mean Green let that one get away because they were -3 in turnovers, but not because they couldn’t keep pace with the UTSA offense (in fact, they outgained UTSA by a mark of 459 to 421).
Trey Moore and Jimmori Robinson have been disruptive edge rushers for the Roadrunners, as Moore paces the team with 36 pressures and 13 sacks. Robinson is tied for second in each category with interior defensive lineman Brandon Matterson, as the pair each have 20 pressures and 5 sacks.
It is not hyperbole to say that this is Tulane’s biggest game of the season, which included a ranked SEC opponent visiting Yulman Stadium for the first time in its history. Without a few key pieces on offense, Tulane would be wise to continue leaning into the combination of Michael Pratt and Chris Brazzell II. As we saw, last week, when an effort is made to take Brazzell away, others need to be ready to step up, again (Cris Carter, Alex Bauman, Bryce Bohanon, and Yulkeith Brown, in particular). Today may just be the day that Makhi Hughes gets his explosive run of 50+ yards, too, after almost breaking more than a half dozen, throughout November.
Prediction:
Jake: Getting the Roadrunners away from the Alamodome is important, and the Green Wave passing game and pass rush appear to be clicking and peaking at the right time. Both will be needed today, and both should be at their best when their best is what’s required. Tulane 31-28
Kelly: All of these close games and the experience winning limited possession games is going to pay off today. The Wave guts out a close game against a really good opponent. Tulane 24-20