Predicting Every Tulane Game for 2021
SP+ helps us break down every single Tulane Football matchup
Well, today is a special day. ESPN’s resident College Football stat czar “robot” Bill Connelly posted his Preseason SP+ rankings (ESPN+ required). Let’s break down both the AAC as a whole and then deep dive Tulane’s gauntlet of a 2021 schedule.
Cincy, UCF, Memphis, and Tulane are the “top four” of the AAC
If we look at the 11 teams of the AAC, here is how each program ranks nationally in the preseason SP+ rankings. As a reminder, these are not resume rankings but power rankings. A higher ranked team does not necessarily finish with the better record (i.e. due to differences in schedule difficulty).
#19: Cincy
#34: UCF
#47: Memphis
#55: Tulane
#57: SMU
#63: Houston
#71: Tulsa
#93: ECU
#99: USF
#105: Temple
#112: Navy
Reacting to the Rankings
First off, Bill’s preseason projection would suggest that the AAC is taking a step back, on the whole. Last season, the 2020 rankings featured five AAC teams in the Top 50: Cincy (#8), UCF (#29), Tulsa (#39), SMU (#43), and Memphis (#49). Tulane was just outside that window in 2020 at #52. This year, the AAC is projected to have just three Top 50 teams with Cincy as the lone representative in the Top 25.
Second, the Cincinnati Bearcats rolled through the AAC and never truly saw another challenger in the G5 to take their New Year Six bid, despite the best efforts of schools like Coastal Carolina. At #19, Cincy is once again the highest ranked G5 school in Bill’s rankings but ULL sits at #30, App State is at #36, and Coastal Carolina is at #37. If Cincy fails to run the table, can the Sun Belt produce a serious contender for the NY6 this year to steal the AAC’s bid, or will the Fun Belt beat up on each other to clear the way? I lean to the latter, to be honest.
Third, Tulsa is the biggest expected dropoff in the AAC after a magical 2020 where they seemingly could not lose close games. They ended the year at #39 in the SP+ rankings but are expected to drop to the bottom half of the league this season.
Fourth, given the aspirations of Houston to be one of the AAC’s top programs, it is notable that the numbers would expect the Coogs to finish somewhere in the middle-ish of the pack again. Houston last won 9 games or more way back in 2016 in Tom Herman’s final season. If the Cougars were to finish at 6-8 wins this year and outside the AAC title conversation, what does that mean for Dana’s outlook after his fourth season at the school? This is the school that told the world, “we fire coaches for 8-4.”
Breaking Down Every Tulane Game by SP+
Game One: #3 Oklahoma @ #55 Tulane
12% Chance of Tulane Victory
The Oklahoma Sooners are coming to town. The Green Wave will open with a marquee game bright and early with an 11 am kickoff on ABC against a national championship contender. The Sooners will show up with handfuls of Tulane season tickets but also a ferocious defensive line. SP+ says this is the toughest game of the year, but also says TULANE WINS THIS GAME 1 OUT OF 10 TIMES?? Go to Harrah’s and spin the wheel. Anything can happen!
Projected Record: 0-1
Game Two: FCS Morgan State @ #55 Tulane
99% Chance of Tulane Victory
Tulane has never lost to an FCS. Win this game, and move along.
Projected Record: 1-1
Game Three: #55 Tulane @ #25 Ole Miss
24% Chance of Tulane Victory
SP+ calls this our second toughest game of the season when the Green Wave meets an old SEC foe in Oxford. Unlike Mississippi State, Ole Miss has won the SEC more times historically than the Greenies. So you know they are pretty solid. They’re also led by the mighty Lane Kiffin, who has engineered quite a professional turnaround in his short time there. Ole Miss has a good shot to be an AP Poll Top 25 team when this game comes around. Tulane will have its work cut out for it in the Grove.
Projected Record: 1-2
Game Four: #68 UAB @ #55 Tulane
63% Chance of Tulane Victory
Finally, the Green Wave will be favored against an FBS program for the first time this season in Game Four. UAB is no slouch. The Blazers are coming off a Conference USA championship. Last time UAB faced Tulane under Willie Fritz, the Blazers heard comments from Tulane’s QB loud and clear about facing a “lesser team” and took down the Wave 31-24. Maybe we should not say that kind of thing, this time around. This will be a tough and important game on the road to bowl eligibility.
Projected Record: 2-2
Game Five: #55 Tulane @ #93 ECU
64% Chance of Tulane Victory
While the Pirates are still struggling and are expected to be one of the weaker teams in the league this season, Greenville remains a tough place to play. The Wave found itself in overtime in 2017 when Jonathan Banks outdueled Gardner Minshew for the win. SP+ says Tulane wins again and gets to go to North Carolina’s Biscuitville with some good vibes.
Projected Record: 3-2
Game Six: #63 Houston @ #55 Tulane
61% Chance of Tulane Victory
Well, we meet again. When Houston last came to Yulman, Tulane RB Amare Jones (now of Georgia Southern) and WR Jalen McCleskey (now of the Saints) combined for one of the most iconic moments in program history to shock Houston on a national stage. D’Eriq King would leave the program for Miami and never play another down for Houston. The Cougars got revenge in 2020 when they steamrolled Tulane after a shaky start. Tulane is expected to pull out a close one.
Projected Record: 4-2
Game Seven: #55 Tulane @ #57 SMU
45% Chance of Tulane Victory
We have to go back to the house of horrors that is Gerald Ford Stadium this season. My most optimistic take is that something has to go Willie Fritz’s way against SMU eventually. Like, at some point, something good has to happen, right? My more negative take is that I think SMU is the candidate for a team that could be much better than their projection and be the dark horse of the league.
Projected Record: 4-3
Game Eight: #19 Cincy @ #55 Tulane
30% Chance of Tulane Victory
This one is right behind the Oklahoma and Ole Miss games in the schedule’s toughness ranking. The Bearcats are the only AAC team viewed as a true Top 25 contender this year (though that often changes as we get deeper and stop pretending that Texas is any good). SP+ says Cincy gets this one comfortably on the road.
Projected Record: 4-4
Game Nine: #55 Tulane @ #34 UCF
31% Chance of Tulane Victory
Tulane will meet Gus Malzahn again as the former Auburn coach takes over the UCF Knights for the first time. The Wave tends to play its best football in Orlando at Camping World Stadium and not the suspiciously named Bounce House. UCF is projected to take this one.
Projected Record: 4-5
Game Ten: #71 Tulsa @ #55 Tulane
64% Chance of Tulane Victory
Well, how the turntables have turned. Tulsa gave Tulane one of the Scott Van Pelt confirmed “Bad Beats” of the year in 2020 with an improbable comeback from their third string QB and a defensive TD in overtime. That thwarted the Wave’s attempt to beat an AP Poll ranked opponent for the first time since the early 1980’s. Tulane could get a little revenge this time around to get within striking distance of bowl eligibility.
Projected Record: 5-5
Game Eleven: #99 USF @ #55 Tulane
80% Chance of Tulane Victory
Among the reasons that Tulane’s schedule is the toughest in the AAC: the Wave will not face Temple or Navy, which are the two lowest ranked teams in this league. They will, however, get to face the projected third worst with the USF Bulls. In their last matchup, Tulane took the Charlie Strong-era Bulls to funky town at Ray J. They will hope to do the same in 2021.
Projected Record: 6-5 to reach bowl eligibility
Game Twelve: #55 Tulane @ #47 Memphis
40% Chance of Tulane Victory
One of the better surprises of last year was when Tulane torched Memphis 35-21 in the send-off game for former Offensive Coordinator Will Hall. Tulane has been able to beat Memphis at home under Fritz. Unfortunately for this year, Tulane will need to find its groove at the Liberty Bowl where the Tigers have dominated.
Projected Record: 6-6 to finish with six wins for the fourth straight season
Visualizing the Probabilities for Tulane’s Season
Here is a chart breaking down the most likely scenarios for Tulane’s season based on the SP+ data. In order, the most likely outcomes are:
Six Wins (26% chance)
Seven Wins (22% chance)!!
Five Wins (20% chance)
In short, the “window” for Tulane is basically a season between four and eight wins if you want to find the ceiling and the floor for the 2021 season.
And with that, I hope you enjoyed this breakdown. Subscribe to our newsletter for free below if you want to keep up with our future posts. You can also see our post from today on WR Mykel Jones here.
Very good assessment, but I give TU wins against SMU and Memphis for an 8 win season.