The FTW Spud-tacular: An Idaho Potato Bowl Preview

Can Tulane take home the bowl of Spuds?

Write-up by FTW writer Kelly Comarda and FTW Editor JP Gooderham. Follow FTW on Twitter, Facebook, and our podcast. This post is presented by Homefield’s very Angry collection of Green Wave apparel.

Well, it’s all about the potatoes now. Since Tulane torched conference foe Memphis to finish the season 6-5 with a 34-21 victory, a lot has changed around here.

Offensive Coordinator Will Hall was officially announced as the Head Coach of Southern Miss. On Dec. 10th, the news hit that long-time Defensive Coordinator Jack Curtis, who has been at Tulane since the original Willie Fritz staff, would part ways as well after five seasons.

Looking at this from a high level, Tulane’s 6-5 effort delivered a winning season while the program successfully navigated the pandemic without a single cancelation. For a team this size (and with this much travel) as well as being in a college environment, that is really impressive. Their reward is a third straight bowl game. As you surely have heard, this is the first time ever that Tulane has gone to three straight bowl games in the history of the program.

On the other hand, Tulane will be forced to confront the unknown before we truly embark in the next era of the Willie Fritz program. They’ll be without their two coordinators from this season (Hall and Curtis). They will no longer have Cody Kennedy or alum Jordy Joseph, who both have moved to Hall’s staff as well. The game will mostly likely be cold (the weather sites call for 30-40 degrees), which is a rarity in our league. And perhaps most notably, the Greenies will be missing many key guys on the field, which we’ll break down in a moment.

And nevertheless, a third straight bowl trophy could make its way to Uptown. Let’s dive into the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Wave of History

This will be the first ever appearance for Tulane in the Idaho Potato Bowl. Listeners who tuned into our “Perfect Wave” series on the 1998 team will remember this is not the first time Tulane has been invited.

Tommy Bowden’s first Green Wave team finished 7-4 and second in Conference USA but did not attend a bowl game. While reportedly, Tulane did not get a bid anywhere, as times were quite a bit different then, Bowden told us on the podcast the newly created Potato Bowl had actually come calling to be their first ever participant.

It was expensive. It was brand new. It was also far away. Bowden chose to stay to keep the team back in New Orleans, which lit a bit of a fire for the players heading into 1998 with a chip on their shoulder.

Looking at this matchup, Tulane and Nevada have played just once before: that was in 1992 in the first ever season for Buddy Teevens. The Buddy system won just two games that year, and one was a 34-17 victory over Nevada in the Superdome.

Wave of Details

Here are the key details for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Tuesday:

TV Info: Game Time is 2:30 PM (CT) on ESPN

The Gamblin’ Line from Vegas: Tulane is a very slight favorite at 2.5 points at the time of writing. The money has been on Nevada as the line opened at Tulane -4. That likely has something to do with this next piece…

The Wave is Going to be Short Handed

Here is the published Two-Deep from the Tulane Media Guide this week.

As you likely know, the Two-Deep is not always the most accurate statement in the world. Here’s what we are seeing / feel pretty confident will mean missing some talent on the field:

• All-AAC First Team DE Cam Sample won’t be playing

• All-AAC First Team LB (Joker) Patrick Johnson won’t be playing. A special note on this, as Guerry Smith covers here: Johnson’s father passed away, and the funeral was held last weekend. Our thoughts go out his family.

• DT Deandre Williams

• RB Amare Jones (who has entered the transfer portal)

WR Mykel Jones is not listed (though that could be a two-deep thing).

This is a very significant change, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Johnson and Sample were conference leading standouts who racked up honors this year, including Sample being named the most valuable Defensive Lineman in College Football according to PFF.

On the positive side, it will be exciting to see true freshman Angelo Anderson, who was the top recruit in last year’s class, with a significant role stepping into Johnson’s shoes for this final game. Let’s break down how we see these teams.

Potato Bowl: Game Breakdown

Here are some things to keep an eye on when each team has the ball.

WHEN NEVADA HAS THE BALL

#1 Mike Mutz grabs the mic.

Tulane linebackers coach Mike Mutz will set the defense for the Wave in the bowl game. Coach Mutz has been the best position coach for the Green Wave over the past 5 years. His linebackers have been consistently well-coached and it’s the one position that Tulane fans haven’t had to worry much about during the Fritz era. This will be a big opportunity for Mutz to show that he has the chops to be a full-time coordinator in the next few years.

He’ll be the run game coordinator for Tulane’s defense next year, but in this game, he’ll face a prolific passing offense led by the spawn of the Air Raid inventor himself, Hal Mumme. How will the defensive calls change? Will the Wave find a way to play better on the back end? This will be something I’ll be watching closely. 

#2 Force Carson Strong to hold the ball.

Nevada Quarterback and Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Carson Strong is one of the best 3 quarterbacks Tulane has faced this year. And that’s saying something when Tulane has already faced Dylan Gabriel, Shane Buechele and Brady White. I’d place him slightly behind Gabriel and Buechele and just ahead of White (yes, I know, that’s big praise).

When Strong can get into a rhythm, he’s nearly impossible to stop. However, when Strong is forced to hold the ball to let deeper routes develop, his offensive line doesn’t always hold up. Tulane has to find a way to take away the quick, easy throws from the Nevada offense and force Strong to make plays down the field. While pass defense down the field has been Tulane’s Achilles’ heel, the Wave may not have much of a choice but to rely on the pass rush to stop Nevada’s offense. 

#3 Who can match up with Cole Turner?

At 6’6’ and 245 lbs, Nevada Tight End Cole Turner is a matchup nightmare. Think Granson from SMU but three inches taller. Scary, I know. Tulane has nobody who matches up with Turner physically, but nobody really does. Will Tulane try to cover him with Cornelius Dyson, who at 6’2 210 is probably the closest it has to a big, physical defensive back? Will Dorian Williams be able to check Turner? Finding a way to limit his effectiveness will be a big key to this game. If Turner goes off for more than 100 yards, the Wave will likely be on the losing end of the scoreboard. 

#4 Limit the 20+ yard plays.

Nevada doesn’t need to run 90 plays to score a bunch of points. In fact, the Wolfpack typically runs fewer plays than its opponents. However, Nevada thrives on huge plays. And it just so happens that Tulane has been known to give up a big play or 10 in any given game. I may sound like a broken record, but if Tulane gives up more than 5 or 6 plays of 20 yards or more, then the Wave will struggle to win this game. Let’s put the over and under at 7. Under 7, I think the Wave wins. For each play over 7, the chances the Wave wins will quickly diminish.

WHEN TULANE HAS THE BALL

#1 Long ball.

Chip Long makes his debut as Tulane’s play caller against Nevada. There is plenty of film out there on Long’s offenses at Memphis and Notre Dame, but what will his Tulane offense look like? Are we going to see any new wrinkles between the Memphis game and this game? Or will we have to wait for the offseason for that?

I’ll be interested to watch how quickly Long gets back into the groove of calling plays and how quickly he adapts to his new personnel. Will Pratt throw the ball 35-40 times? This will be interesting to watch.

#2 Get Cam Carroll going.

Cam Carroll has been boom or bust for the Wave either putting up monster numbers or disappearing totally. When defenses have gotten Carroll to turn his shoulders to the sideline and run east to west, he’s been totally ineffective. Hopefully Chip Long has studied the tape and we see Carroll run the ball between the tackles.

With Stephon Huderson missing some practice time grieving the loss of his father and no other healthy scholarship running backs on the roster, Carroll is going to have to step up and be ready to carry the ball 20+ times this week. 

#3 Cold weather issues?

Michael Pratt (and others} has already commented on the cold weather that is expected for the game. The high is projected to be 39 and the low is 21.  Nevada is much more used to the cold and won’t be phased by it. The Wave hasn’t played a game this year where the temperature has been lower than 60 degrees. With wind bursts up to 18 miles per hour, it’s going to feel even colder. Tulane’s passing offense cannot go into a winter slumber just because it’s cold. 

#4 The Quan.

Everyone knows we’re big fans of Jha’Quan Jackson. Chip Long is too, already having commented on Jackson’s work ethic and skill set. If Long’s offense looks anything like it did during his days at Memphis, Jackson could catch 80 balls next year. Will this game be a preview? It could be. Expect Long to get Jackson involved early and often. I put Jackson’s over/under at 7 catches in this game. 

Predictions for the Potato Bowl

Make sure to leave your prediction. The closest to the actual score difference will win a FTW sticker.

Kelly’s Prediction: Nevada is tough. The Mountain West may not have been as good as the AAC this year, but it was pretty close. Nevada does a lot of things well that Tulane struggles to stop. In fact, their offense reminds me a lot of SMU. I think Tulane wins this game, but it’s going to come down to the buzzer. Merek Glover from 35 at the gun. Tulane 34 Nevada 33.

JP’s Prediction: Well, I already predicted in my Mountain West interview this week that Tulane was going to win this thing by 11. I feel significantly less good about that as the game has come into focus and seeing what we’re missing on defense.

The rational part of me looks at this as a very tough matchup. You’re losing your most potent attack on defense that could really challenge the QB Strong. You’ve struggled this year against almost every team that has had a really good player under center a la UCF, Houston, and SMU. Nevada runs an offense that is not a particularly good fit for us, centered around big plays in the passing game and attacking the secondary.

Thankfully, I do not operate rationally. I am sticking to my guns. Depleted team? Check. New coordinators and other staff turnover? Check. A trip to a strange, cold potato land? Check. It’s time for the Florida boy to sling it with a new offensive coordinator with something to prove. Tulane 35. Nevada 24. Let’s roll.

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