Preview by Jake Weinstock
And here we are, again. This afternoon, for the second consecutive season, Tulane will host the American Athletic Conference Championship Game at Yulman Stadium. 3:00 p.m., ABC. #22 Tulane, 11-1 (8-0), faces off with the SMU Mustangs, 10-2 (8-0). The Mustangs, while absent from Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings, check in at #25 in the AP Poll and #24 in the Coaches Poll.
With a win, the expectation is that for the second consecutive year, Tulane would be awarded the “Group of 5” (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Sun-Belt Conference, Mountain West Conference, and Mid-American Conference) bid to a New Year’s Six Bowl game, either the Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ) or the Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA). In the now ten year history of the College Football Playoff Era, Tulane would join UCF (2017, 2018) and Cincinnati (2020, 2021) as just the third school to receive this bid twice.
To get there, however, the Wave must go 1-0 one more time. They must go 1-0 for the 11th straight time, in fact. They must go 1-0 while the media and internet focuses on private jet tail numbers and rumors. They must go 1-0 in a potential downpour. They must go 1-0 against a team with something to prove, a team that was “embarrassed that [they] got killed on national television” just 54 weeks ago, to quote SMU Head Coach Rhett Lashlee, as the Green Wave ran them out of Yulman Stadium 59-24 in a game that wasn’t that close (the score was 49-7 late in the 3rd quarter).
No matter what happens today, this weekend, and in the coming weeks, this group of special young men, coaches, and support staff deserve our attention, respect, support and undying gratitude. Only Georgia (27), Michigan (25), and Washington (24) have won more games than Tulane (23), since the start of the 2022 season. Only five (5) teams have won more games since the start of this season than Tulane (11).
In this remarkable two-season stretch, Tulane has won sixteen (16) conference games, and will head out there today looking for one more (the Wave are 16-1 since the start of 2022 in AAC play). Curtis Johnson was the head coach here for four (4) seasons – he won twelve (12) games against FBS opponents, total. Bob Toledo was the head coach here for five (5) seasons – he won eleven (11) games against FBS opponents, total. If Tulane goes 1-0, today, they’ll have won eleven (11) FBS games in the last ninety-one (91) days.
As they say, we’re on to SMU… The Mustangs enter without starting quarterback Preston Stone, who suffered a season-ending injury last weekend against Navy. Enter Kevin Jennings, a very talented, very confident redshirt-freshman, who will make his first career start, this afternoon. Jennings has seen snaps in eight (8) of SMU’s games over the last two (2) seasons, mostly in mop-up duty. Across those appearances, he’s totaled 54 dropbacks and some impressive numbers; he is 35/46 in his career for a 76.1% completion percentage, with a 9.3 yards per attempt average, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
There is, perhaps, some signal in the limited sample size that we have. His average depth of target is a very low 7.3 yards per attempt, but he and the SMU offense have shown a propensity to take deep shots and look for those explosive plays, when the opportunity presents itself. My expectation is that SMU will attempt to pepper the Wave with passes near the line of scrimmage to keep the ball out of harm’s way and will hope to draw those safeties into the box and then capitalize on shots down the field. Eight SMU players have between 31-48 targets, and tight end RJ Maryland paces the team with 48, on the season. Jake Bailey, Maryland, and Romeo Brinson should be in play at or near the line of scrimmage, while Key’Shawn Smith is a player to watch, on those deep shots, when they come.
Jennings, in his limited sample size, has shown a tendency to take sacks, as opponents have converted 25% of pressures on him into sacks. The Mustangs as a whole, however, are allowing only 1.3 sacks per game (19th lowest average in FBS). Lastly, expect more designed runs for Jennings than one would have expected from Preston Stone. The Mustangs have called 14 designed runs for Jennings against 54 career dropbacks, for a ratio of 1:4, but over Stone’s career, only 47 designed runs have been called against 438 dropbacks, for a ratio of 1:10.
Jennings will inherit an offense that is absolutely rolling. Out of 133 FBS qualifiers, the Mustangs are 12th in points per play (a great metric for offensive explosiveness and efficiency), 6th in points per game (39.4 points per game), 11th in offensive touchdowns per game, 13th in total offense (464 yards per game). Interestingly, SMU is just 29th in redzone opportunities (4.2 per game) and 45th in 3rd down conversion rate – in other words, their offense has been so explosive they’re frequently scoring touchdowns from outside the redzone and not having to face many third downs. SMU has scored at least 30 points in 8 straight games, and the Green Wave have not allowed 30 points in 10 straight games – something has to give, today.
Under Stone, this has been a very pass-first offense, with designed rushes called on only 38.8% of offensive snaps (74thhighest percentage in the country). The Mustangs are rushing for a respectable but not elite 4.5 yards per carry, and have still been a heavier zone scheme, this year (roughly 60% zone to 40% gap), but are certainly more balanced than they were in 2022 (roughly 75% zone to 25% gap).
Flipping over to the other side, the SMU defense will look very, very different than the unit that Tulane scored 59 points on, last November. This season, the Ponies boast the 4th best 3rd down defense in the country (28% conversion rate, against), the 14thbest total defense (allowing 315 yards per game), and opponents have the 7th highest ratio of punts per offensive score. The Mustangs are allowing just 3.4 yards per rush (20th best) and 6.0 yards per pass attempt (6th best), and are 7th in the country in “sack percentage,” i.e. how often an enemy dropback results in a sack. Leading the way is edge rusher Elijah Roberts, who has 11 sacks and 55 pressures throughout the regular season. Also effective are Elijah Chatman (interior defensive lineman) and Nelson Paul (edge rusher) who have 22 and 21 pressures and 3 and 4 sacks, respectively.
While the pass coverage has been good, the numbers suggest the links in the secondary to attack are cornerback Chris Megginson and safety Ahmad Moses. Perhaps the area where the Mustangs are perhaps weakest, defensively, is that they have not generated many takeaways, and again, are trotting out a redshirt freshman making his first career start at quarterback, today…
Prediction:
Jake: Tulane has proven the ability to win games in a variety of different ways, this season. The pass rush is peaking at the perfect time, the (hopeful) return of Jha’Quan Jackson should shift attention away from emerging superstar Chris Brazzell, and should open a number of explosive opportunities in the passing game against a team that plays a ton of single-high safety coverages, and Makhi Hughes has been an effective rusher even against statistically excellent defenses like this one, before. Tulane 34-24
Kelly: Tulane will take advantage of a couple of Kevin Jennings mistakes and the Wave’s championship game experience will prove to be too much for SMU to overcome. Tulane 31-17.