Tulane Goes to Houston for a Season Opener
Can the Green Wave's road magic find its way down I-10?
Write-up by FTW writer Kelly Comarda and FTW Editor JP Gooderham. Follow FTW on Twitter, Facebook, and our podcast.
Welcome back, Greenies. It is a very short game week as the Tulane Green Wave prepares to make yet another road trip to face the Houston Cougars, so we’re getting your newsletter out a little early.
Surely, no one needs to be reminded that the last time we saw the Greenies in action, the good guys were leaving Hattiesburg with some hardware that has decided to buy — not rent — some real estate in Uptown. The bell is back, but we’re on to Houston.
Now 2-1, Tulane faces a much tougher test on Thursday when Houston will get its first game of the season after a disheartening series of COVID-related cancelations. That is right. Houston is playing their very opponent on October 8th of this completely chaotic season. Let’s break this game down.
Tulane @ Houston Primer
Records: Tulane (2-1) @ Houston (0-0)
ESPN SP+ Rankings: Tulane #67 @ #60 Houston
Vegas Gamblin’ Lines: Houston -6.5
Commentary: Well, you can look at this game and come away with any hot take that you want.
On Tulane’s side, they’ve got some momentum after pasting the Mustard Buzzards of Southern Mississippi 66-24 — the worst opposing school score in the history of their stadium dating back to the 1970s!
Beyond that, we’re going to see the eagerly anticipated first start of freshman QB Michael Pratt, who was a crucial part of the above mentioned shellacking.
On Houston’s side, folks anticipate that this Houston team will be an above average AAC opponent despite the 4-8 record from last season when Jalen McCleskey’s TD effectively led the Cougars to shut their season down. They’re also playing at home and should be plenty fired up to get their first real game action of the season (he writes, knocking on wood). Houston is approximately a touchdown favorite at this time of this writing (Houston -6.5).
TV: National on ESPN
Wave of History
Tulane and Houston first played back in 1968, which opened (what became a theme of this series) with a beatdown of 54-7 over the Greenies. A few years later, Houston would meet Tulane again in the postseason at the Astro Blue Bonnet Bowl (pictured above), which resulted again in a 47-7 thumping.
The series would get better in the late 1990s when Tulane would win 4 out of 5 matchups from 1998 to 2002, including a 48-20 victory in the undefeated 1998 campaign.
The fortunes would turn again heavily to Houston during the Conference USA years, with 10 consecutive wins for the Cougars between 2003 and 2012.
As we move into the most recent era, Tulane escalated from a thorn in Houston’s side to something of a rivalry in the AAC. In 2014 (in an otherwise bad year), the Green Wave and Curtis Johnson shocked the Cougars with an upset victory over Tony Levine’s team.
Willie Fritz has gone 2-2 against Houston which was highlighted by last season’s national TV sensation that captured possibly the best final 2:00 from across College Football last season.
Series Record: Houston > Tulane 17-7
Game Breakdown
Tulane (2-1, 0-1 in AAC play) faces Houston on Thursday night in what will be Houston’s first game of the season. While it’s difficult to predict what new wrinkles Houston will have in 2020, we’ll dive into some 2019 tape to see what Houston did on offense and defense on 2019.
What to watch for when Houston has the ball:
Speed, speed and more speed.
Houston has several receivers who can flat out run led by Louisiana native Marquez Stevenson. Stevenson burned Tulane for multiple big plays in 2019, including a 75 yard first quarter touchdown catch and a 34 yard run on an end around. Also providing speed at the receiver position are former Brother Martin star Jeremy Singleton, JUCO transfer Nathaniel Dell and Swiss-army knife Bryson Smith, Jr.
That’s not even including Houston’s top receiving target, Keith Corbin, who returns for his redshirt Senior season after recording 10 TDs as a junior before opting to take a redshirt after 4 games last year. Tulane must eliminate chunk plays for touchdowns or its going to be a long night against the Cougars.
Can Tulane stop the run with 6?
While Houston employs a variation of the Air Raid offense, it’s version looks a lot more like Oklahoma’s balanced Air Raid attack than Mike Leach’s throw on every down offense. Houston will try to establish the run early and often against Tulane to try to get Tulane to commit 7 defenders to stop its rushing attack. If that happens, Houston will throw deep and try to isolate Tulane’s defensive backs on an island with one of its many speed demon receivers.
That won’t work out well for Tulane. Houston’s rushing attack lost a big piece when D’Eriq King decided to transfer to Miami. Clayton Tune, Houston’s likely starter at Quarterback, is a capable runner but does not possess the type of big play ability that King has. Will Tulane be able to get enough penetration and shut down Houston’s rushing attack? The game might depend on it.
Rush (and hit) the passer.
Clayton Tune, when allowed time in the pocket, is a problem for opposing defenses. Houston likes to run double moves and deep over routes allowing its fast receivers time to create loads of separation from opposing defensive backs. However, when Tune has faced a good pass rush, he has a tendency to get sloppy with his footwork as most young quarterbacks do. That sloppiness has made him turnover prone (9 interceptions in 7 games last year).
Cameron Sample, Patrick Johnson and the crew must put pressure on Tune and force him to move his feet and change his launch spots. When Tulane has a chance to hit Tune, it needs to take advantage of those opportunities. Having 3 games under their belt should give this defensive line a big advantage early in this game. A sack-fumble or a pressure induced interception could give Tulane the edge it needs to pull off a much-needed road win.
Can Tulane’s seasoned defensive backs put it all together?
Tulane’s most impactful defensive play might have been turned in against USM by true freshman Kevaris Hall against Southern Miss. Defensive back was originally thought to be a strength of Tulane’s team in 2020, but it’s been a weakness to start the year. Tulane’s defensive backs were abused by South Alabama in the first half of the opener, allowed Navy two huge pass plays that changed the course of that game and gave up huge pass plays against Southern Miss before the defensive line had enough and took over the game.
The Houston game begins a string of games where Tulane’s experience in the secondary was supposed to get them over the hump. So, I’m calling out Jaylon Monroe, Kyle Meyers, Willie Langham, Ajani Kerr, Chase Kuerschen, Larry Brooks and Macon Clark. We’re going to need your best against Houston or else we don’t stand much of a chance.
When Tulane has the ball
Stay ahead of the sticks
Michael Pratt will be making his collegiate start on Thursday night on national television. He’s going to be excited, and it’s up to Will Hall to protect him from himself. Tulane needs to get its running backs going early both running between the tackles and attacking with jet sweeps and swing screens.
Gaining 4 yards or more every first down will help Tulane keep the running game in play on second and third downs and keep the offense unpredictable. Houston, like Tulane, wants to be able to stop the run with 6 if possible, so first down success will lead to better matchups in the pass game and make Pratt’s job a little easier.
Bombs away
This game is going to be won by the team that can attack with the deep ball on offense and defend the deep ball on defense. Looking at Houston’s 2019 defensive tape, they either walked the strong safety up into the box or used the Nickelback as a 7th run defender several times against 3 wide receiver looks. That left either the nickel or the strong safety in one-on-one coverage with a receiver.
Tulane can create big plays by trying to isolate Houston’s safeties on faster wide receivers like Phat Watts and Jha’Quan Jackson on deep routes or by running two receivers deep and forcing the help defender (free safety) to pick which receiver to help cover which will allow Pratt to throw into single coverage against the other receiver. Houston was burned several times last year in this scenario. With Pratt, Tulane has a quarterback who can take advantage of single coverage downfield.
Tyrick James
This could be a big game for Tulane’s tight ends. In the scenario described in section 2, James could very well be matched up against a linebacker or a strong safety who are going to be conditioned to crash hard against the run. In multiple instances last year, Houston bit hard on play action fakes and lost track of tight ends in the process. James could be a real x-factor for Tulane’s offense in this game.
Ball security
Some coaches say that any drive that ends in a kick is a good drive, whether that be a punt or a field goal or an extra point. While I don’t generally agree with that sentiment because I hate to punt, that could be the case in this game as long as Tulane’s defense doesn’t surrender an early lead. If Tulane can avoid turning the ball over and establish its running game, the Wave might be able to dominate time of possession. Houston cannot be expected to be in perfect game shape having not played a game yet, so that could be a big advantage for Tulane as the game wears on. If Tulane can keep the ball for 35 minutes or more, it should be a good night for the Wave.
Prediction:
Kelly’s Prediction:
Houston has to feel like it owes the Wave a beating for the 2019 game. However, Tulane finds itself in an advantageous situation for the second time in as many years against Houston. Last year, Houston played 4 games in 19 days. This year, Houston hasn’t played at all, Tulane has played 3 games and is coming off a bye week.
As I said in the piece, this one will come down to big plays in the passing game. I think Tulane’s more aggressive philosophy against USM will serve the Wave well in this game. Anything can happen in this COVID season, but I think the stars might be aligning for a Tulane victory in this one.
Tulane 34 Houston 28
JP’s Prediction:
Look, Houston is going to be a tough team to beat every year in this league. Furthermore, the Greenies have not had many great experiences going west on I-10 for this one. With that said, mid-season form is a powerful thing, and Tulane will need to capitalize on that with a fast start.
I am officially a believer in Michael Pratt. He’s a freshman. You think he will be prone to some mistakes. I still think he can come out and deliver now that he has been handed the keys to the Will Hall car (or Willie Fritz bus if you prefer). Tulane is due for some good luck in Texas, and I think this will be it in a close one that would take some sting out of an unfathomable loss to a Navy team that looks very mortal. Go beat one of the league’s better programs in their house on ESPN, and your narrative starts to change for 2020.
Tulane 27 - Houston 24
I see what you did there, JP...
Great job, guys. Keep up the great work. Go Wave!