Tulane goes to South Alabama as the Favorite
Will the Green Wave set the tone for a successful 2020 season?
Write-up by FTW writer Kelly Comarda and FTW Editor JP Gooderham. Follow FTW on Twitter, Facebook, and our podcast.
Greenies, we’ve finally made it. Tomorrow, Tulane (0-0) will face the South Alabama Jaguars (1-0) at 6:30 PM (central) live on ESPN 2 in front of a national viewing audience.
The Jaguars are fresh off a victory over the Mustard Buzzards of Southern Miss in a significant upset. This, of course, resulted in a very fast resignation of USM Head Coach Jay Hopson just one week into the season.
Nevertheless, South Alabama is considered a 10-point underdog to the Green Wave. With that said, a storyline you’ll surely hear quite a lot about on the telecast is that South Alabama is opening their brand new stadium with a limited crowd during COVID restrictions. As we can remember with Yulman a few years back, we should expect the Jaguars to show up with some energy after an opening win on a big night for their program.
History Class:
Looking at the history books, Tulane has been a double digit road favorite just five times since 2000 including this game. Those included:
2017: Tulane -12 @ FIU -> 23-10 Loss
2003: Tulane -17 @ Army -> 50-33 Win
2002: Tulane -13.5 @ UL-Monroe -> 52-9 Win
2000: Tulane -19.5 @ UL-Lafayette -> 38-37 Win
Tulane last played South Alabama in 2013 in a 41-39 loss that found the Greenies in a Superdome shootout. The Jaguars would hold onto a close lead in the fourth quarter despite a late Nick Montana touchdown to leave New Orleans with the win.
Let’s take a look at what we can expect on both sides of the ball on Saturday.
What to Watch For:
When South Alabama has the ball…
When the Jaguars have the ball…
1. Set the edge.
When South Alabama has the ball, they want to run the ball outside and look for cutback lanes. It will be critical for Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample to set the edge and force plays back into the teeth of the defense.
2. Get their QB Trotter to move his feet.
While Desmond Trotter had a good game against Southern Miss, he struggled to throw the ball accurately on the run and in the face of pressure. Trotter is considered a dual threat quarterback, but he’s not particularly fast. If Tulane can force him to move his feet, it can force throwaways and potentially entice Trotter to throw the ball into coverage.
3. Safety is the best policy.
Over the last two years, South Alabama has made a concerted effort to throw the ball deep at least a handful of times per game. Trotter threw two interceptions against Southern Miss and both were by the free safety who was able to stay at home deep in the middle of the field. On each of South Alabama’s deep completions, receivers were either single covered or the safety was late to arrive to the football.
4. Stop Tolbert.
Jalen Tolbert has been a beast in the last two games for South Alabama. Either Kyle Meyers or Jaylon Monroe will draw the assignment against Tolbert, but Larry Brooks and Chase Kuerschen will have to be cognizant of where Tolbert is at all times. Tulane cannot let Tolbert beat them.
5. Not so Special Teams.
South Alabama’s special teams were not good against Southern Miss. The kicking game was bad, missing two extra points and a field goal. It wasn’t that long ago that Tulane was in that position. If this game comes down to special teams, Tulane has a clear advantage.
When Tulane has the ball:
1. Keon Howard on the Run:
Southern Miss ran several zone read looks where Jack Abraham gave the ball to the running back and wasn’t reading the defensive end. As a result, USA’s defensive ends ran unblocked at USM running backs all night. This led to USM struggling to run the ball. If Keon Howard can show an ability to pull the ball and take off, running lanes will open for Tulane running backs.
2. New Faces on the O-Line
Tulane will likely have at least 2 new faces on the offensive line. Josh Remetich may get the nod at right guard as a true freshman and either Jaylon Miller or Trey Tuggle will get the nod at right tackle. Two true freshmen starting on one side of the offensive line sounds like a nightmare, but Remetich and Tuggle are the real deal. If they start, they will have beaten out several more experienced players.
3. Who steps up at receiver?
Tulane’s leading returning receiver is Amare Jones. No other player on Tulane’s offense has as many career catches as Jones had last year. Who steps up to replace the duo of Mooney and McCleskey? I think the two receivers to jump off the screen tomorrow night will be Duece Watts and Jha’Quan Jackson. Watts has the size and speed to get open deep and to catch the ball in traffic. Jackson is cat-quick and shows an ability to take short passes a long way after the catch.
4. Tyjae Time.
Tyjae Spears is likely to get the nod as the starting tailback Saturday night, and Tulane fans have to be excited by his potential. Spears has drawn rave reviews from his coaches and teammates since he arrived at Tulane. Southern Miss was able to create a few runs against South Alabama where their running backs just weren’t able to turn the corner to make a big play. These are runs that we could see Spears break this Saturday. Look for the Wave to feed Spears early and often to try to get him in a rhythm.
5. The Mantra: Wave don’t beat the Wave
Willie Fritz has said this a million times since taking over as head coach of the Green Wave, but this might be the most important point of all this week. Tulane is the more talented team in this matchup. It has the more experienced roster. The only way South Alabama is going to win this game is if Tulane commits costly penalties and turns the ball over. If Tulane limits mistakes, it should win this game comfortably.
Predictions
Kelly’s Prediction: Tulane 34 - South Alabama 16
JP’s Prediction: Tulane 42 - South Alabama 13
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