Tulane Goes to Tulsa Seeking Back-to-Back Ranked Wins
Tulane tries to secure a winning season while Tulsa tries to make the conference championship.
Write-up by FTW writer Kelly Comarda and FTW Editor JP Gooderham. Follow FTW on Twitter, Facebook, and our podcast. This post is presented by Homefield’s very Angry collection of Green Wave apparel.
Well, Greenies. I don’t know that anyone would have circled this one quite like this, but I feel pretty confident in saying Tulane @ #25 Tulsa could be the biggest game of the season for both teams.
In one corner, Tulane has launched a season turnaround fueled by a high powered offense and buoyed by a resurgent defensive line. Last week, the Greenies dominated the #25 Coaches Poll-ranked Black Knights of Army for the first win against a Top 25 team (from the AP or Coaches Poll) since 1984. This week, they’ll try to do it again against the #25 team in the AP Poll: Tulsa.
At 5-4, a road upset would secure the first winning record in the regular season under Willie Fritz (as he has finished at 6-6 the past two seasons before getting over the hump in the bowl game).
In the other corner, Tulsa will host the Green Wave as a ranked team for the first time since 2008. Since then, Tulsa has been on a rollercoaster as a football team and an athletics department. Nevertheless, Head Coach Philip Montgomery has evidently taken the long road back to success, as Tulsa looks to head to bowl season for the first time since 2016 when they last went to the Miami Beach Bowl.
Tulsa doesn’t have its sights on bowl season. At 4-0 in the league (and with critical tiebreaker clinching wins over SMU and UCF), the Golden Hurricane is certainly in contention to play in the conference championship game.
On Thursday night, two teams will face off on ESPN after wins over ranked opponents. There hasn’t been a Tulsa vs. Tulane game this evenly matched in our history, and it’s poised to be a good one. Let’s dive in.
A quick plug. FTW was interviewed on “The Current” Podcast with Andrew Allegreta this week. You can listen in here.
Wave of History
Tulsa and Tulane first met way back in 1961 when the Jim Pittman-led Greenies would take home the first victory over the Golden Hurricane by 25-15. That early success would be a signal of what was to come, right?
Not exactly. Tulsa and Tulane did not meet again until 2005 during the Chris Scelfo years in Conference USA, and boy, things were not good.
Tulsa would evaporate the Wave for eight consecutive wins from 2005 to 2012 before the Greenies finally broke through in the 2013 bowl season. That was just a blip, though, and Tulsa would win in 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Things changed considerably once the machine of Steamboat Willie Fritz got rolling. In 2017, Tulane memorably dropped a 62-28 beatdown on Tulsa to set a school record for AAC scoring.
In 2018, they backed it up with a narrow 24-17 win in Tulsa. In 2019, back in New Orleans, Fritz won again over Montgomery with a smooth 38-26 win.
All-time, the record remains heavily in Tulsa’s favor at 11-5 while the Greenies control the recent history with three straight wins.
The Wave of Details
Here are the key details for Tulane at #25 Tulsa.
Game Time: 6:30 (CT)
Game Network: ESPN (National Game)
AAC Blogger Poll Rankings:
Tulane is #7 in the AAC this week
Tulsa is #2 in the AAC this week
The Vegas Gamblin’ Lines: Tulane is a 6.5 point underdog for the road trip to face Tulsa. The line has moved from Tulane +5 to Tulane +6.5 with some money going toward Tulsa.
Other Storylines: The Tulane single season record for sacks came in 1973 when Mark Olivari had 14. Patrick Johnson leads the NCAA with 10 sacks and two regular season games remaining (and hopefully a bowl game).
Johnson has already etched his name in the record books with the Tulane career sack record. Awesome.
Also notable: this will be the first time that Tulane has played Tulsa with former AD Rick Dickson now at the helm as interim AD of Tulsa. We’ll check in Thursday night to see which side is sent packing across the street, if you know what I mean.
Keys of the Game
The relative success or failure of Tulane’s season will largely be determined by the next two weeks. Here we are, exactly where I predicted three weeks ago 5-4 with two big matchups on the horizon. Tulsa, a perennial thorn in Tulane’s side from 2005 to 2016, defeated Tulane 11 out of 12 times in that span. Tulane’s lone win was in 2013, a 14-7 snooze fest against a Tulsa team playing a freshman quarterback (Dane Evans), who turned out to be pretty good. In the past three seasons, Tulane has rebuilt a little pride in this “rivalry” thumping Tulsa in 2017 and winning in overtime on the road in 2018 before beating Tulsa on homecoming at Yulman in 2019.
Tulsa is only playing its second back to back of the season, having had multiple COVID cancellations. The last time it played back to back, it should’ve lost at home to ECU. This one is going to be that much more difficult as it’s a short week for both teams. Tulane has become somewhat of a road warrior team this year winning 3 road games for the first time since 1998 albeit against inferior competition. Regardless, Tulane is road tested, and the Wave won’t be intimidated or thrown off by a road trip.
For all of the ups and downs of the Tulane-Tulsa rivalry, there has never been a game that meant much…that is, until now. Both programs are at a crossroads of sorts. Tulsa, a veteran team set to lose a number of key contributors, is on the brink of an AAC championship appearance in the COVID shortened season. A loss to Tulane could crush Tulsa’s title hopes. Meanwhile, Tulane is out to show that it’s not just a mediocre team but a team on the rise that could challenge for an AAC title in the next few seasons behind Michael Pratt.
This one will be interesting.
WHEN TULSA HAS THE BALL
Can Tulsa protect the QB?
Pass protection has been a problem for the Golden Hurricane at times. While Tulsa has only given up 9 sacks on the season, 6 of them have come in the past two games against ECU and SMU. There were several other pressures that resulted in errant passes, short gains by the quarterback or throw aways. Tulane is currently second in the country with 30 sacks (17th if you adjust for sacks per game), and Tulsa gave up 4 sacks to the Wave last season. If Tulane is going to have a chance to win this game, Patrick Johnson, Cam Sample and company are going to have to have a big day. If Tulane can generate 4 sacks and a handful of other pressures, the Wave will have a chance to win this game.
Stop the vertical pass.
Stop me if you’ve read this before in this column, but Tulane struggles to defend the deep ball. If Tulane wants to beat Tulsa, it has to take that away. It can start with a good pass rush, but the Wave is going to have to keep coverage over the top and be hyper aware of Zach Smith’s desire to throw the ball deep.
Every time I watch Tulsa play, Smith throws a couple of beautiful vertical passes that either gain big yardage or are near misses that could’ve gained big yardage. Most of these throws are not your garden variety high passes that land 40 yards from the line of scrimmage. Smith likes to throw 20 yard streaks on a line and tries to fit the ball in either just over the defender or to the back shoulder of the receiver. Tulane defensive backs are going to have to be aware of Smith’s tendencies and be ready to defend the “quick” 9 routes without committing pass interference.
Turnover beads will be a necessary accessory.
Tulsa is a veteran team with a solid quarterback and a good defense. For Tulane to win this game, the Wave is going to have to force a couple of turnovers. East Carolina was able to get their hands on a couple of passes and make Smith pay for some poor throws. Whether Tulane can force a couple of interceptions or a couple of Patrick Johnson strip sacks, the Wave will need a boost or two from the defense on Thursday.
The Elephant in the room.
Tulane’s strategy against good passing teams hasn’t worked. Houston adjusted to what Tulane was doing and after some early Tulane success, Houston owned the Wave. The same thing happened with Central Florida and SMU. I wouldn’t put Tulsa in the category of those three offenses because the Golden Hurricane is not as explosive; however, Tulsa moves the chains and racks up yardage.
Why hasn’t the Tulane strategy worked? There are a couple of reasons. Houston was able to stymie Tulane’s pass rush and Clayton Tune had loads of time to find receivers in the second half of that game. Tulane missed about a thousand tackles against SMU which led to the Mustangs picking up over 220 yards after the catch. Central Florida was a mixture of Tulane trying to play 8 men in coverage and Central Florida receivers taking advantage of some pretty big mismatches.
But there has been one constant in these games as well as poor Tulane performances in 2019: how we’re using personnel. Last year, it was dropping Patrick Johnson into coverage and asking him to cover players down field instead of rushing the passer. This year, I look at how Tulane has used Chase Kuerschen — who by all accounts is a great kid, a good teammate and a good leader. It’s not his fault. He can’t be expected to cover some of the better receivers in the conference one on one.
Houston lined up star Marquez Stevenson in the slot and Kuerschen was asked to cover him one-on-one 30 yards downfield. UCF isolated the AAC’s leading receiver Marlon Williams on Kuerschen who was given no help.
Opposing coaches see the mismatch on film and have been able to execute. So either Jack Curtis has to find a better way to use his personnel or else opposing coaches will continue to isolate mismatches and exploit these weaknesses in our game plan. This is Willie Fritz’s and Jack Curtis’ chance to show they can live up to their their own mantra and make the tough decisions necessary to go “From Good to Great.”
WHEN TULANE HAS THE BALL
Stay away from Zaven Collins.
Zaven Collins has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Golden Hurricane this year. Collins is a 6’4 260 lb stand up outside linebacker who has rocketed up mock draft boards with his stellar play this Fall. Collins projects as a possible second round pick in the April 2021 NFL draft and watching Tulsa play it’s easy to see why. In 4 and a half games, Collins has amassed 33 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, a forced fumble and three interceptions.
ECU was able to build a lead on Tulsa in large part because Collins missed a big portion of that game on the sidelines with an injury. When Collins returned to the game, ECU’s offense stalled again. Coincidence? I think not. Tulane will have to know where Collins is at all times and make sure to do a good job with “check with me” plays so that Will Hall can adjust on the fly if Collins lines up where Tulane doesn’t expect him to be.
Can Tulane generate a running game?
Tulsa, like Army last week, has been able to control the running game giving up just 135 yards per game against the run on 3.6 yards per carry. That’s much more impressive than Army considering Tulsa has played Oklahoma State, Central Florida, ECU, South Florida and SMU and Army had played Cincinnati and 6 cupcakes. Yet, Army sold out to stop Tulane’s running game and did a really good job for the most of the game.
Tulsa, like Army, also employs a three man defensive front anchored by one-time Tulane commitment Tyarise Stevenson (6’3 350). Stevenson, like Jeffery Johnson, commands a lot of attention in the middle and while he doesn’t make a ton of plays, he takes up a ton of attention which allows Zaven Collins and company to fly around unmolested to make plays. Look for Tulane to run some ghost motion and other window dressing to create holes in the Tulsa front. Tulsa’s linebackers and defensive backs are trained, like Army’s, to fly towards the line of scrimmage when they see the ball handed off, so jet sweeps and receiver screens probably won’t be too successful against Tulsa’s defense. However, the threat of those plays could open up running lanes for Tulane’s backs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tulane run a couple of receiver screens or jet sweeps early to set something up later in the game.
Last year, Tulsa had a pretty good run defense aside from 3 games: Navy, Oklahoma State and Tulane. Navy runs the triple option, so let’s take them out of the equation and focus on AAC play. Tulsa gave up an average of 161.4 yards per game rushing last year in AAC play, which isn’t bad. However, it gave up 290 yards rushing to Tulane. This year, Tulsa hasn’t given up more than 151 yards rushing in any game. Tulane has to set its sights on 200 yards rushing, and if they achieve that goal, Tulane stands a great chance of winning.
Stay patient.
This game will be a real test for Michael Pratt to see how far he’s progressed because Tulsa’s defense will make him work for every yard. Tulsa’s defense has been pretty consistent in what they try to do. They play a lot of man coverage on early downs against teams who like to run the ball because they love to blitz. Tulsa’s linebackers and safeties will clog the short to intermediate middle of the field, so Pratt shouldn’t see as many slants open in this game as he’s seen against other competition. In fact, Tulsa will show blitz with their linebackers and drop back into zone coverage which has generated 4 linebacker interceptions this year. If Tulane is going to throw the ball into the middle of the field, I’m willing to bet that their best shot to complete passes will be 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage.
Tulsa’s corners will either play off across the board or they will play bump and run on the outside and off the ball on the slot. If Tulsa’s corners play off, Tulane’s receivers will need to threaten the corners enough to get them to turn and run. That will open up stop routes and comebacks. The speed out will be open out of the slot most of the game as well when the outside corner is off. Tulsa’s corners are big and physical, so don’t expect much from Duece Watts deep down the sidelines. Instead, expect more of what you saw last week. Stop routes, comebacks and quick outs. These throws aren’t likely to generate big plays, but they’ll keep the chains moving.
On obvious passing downs, Tulsa has shown a willingness to drop 8 men in coverage and play four across underneath and 4 across deep. If Tulane sees this zone look, I would expect Will Hall to check into some running plays to try to keep the ball out of harm’s way but also because other teams have had success picking up first downs on the ground in 3rd and 8-12 yards to go when Tulsa shows cover 4, zone under.
Who will step up and make a play?
If Tulane is going to leave Tulsa with a win, someone is going to have to step up and either take his game to another level or make a play that we don’t necessarily expect him to make. What am I talking about? Well, we know what to expect from certain guys. Cam Carroll is either going to run for well over 100 yards and 10 yards per rush or he’s going to have a rough game. That’s just who he is this year. Stephone Huderson is going to rush for 80-100 yards if he gets more than 14 carries. Duece Watts is going to catch 5 or 6 passes for between 50-90 yards. Jha’Quan Jackson is going to give you 4-5 catches for 50-60 yards. Does one of these guys go off and have a huge game? Maybe. And if so, that would give Tulane a great chance to win because up until now, Tulane hasn’t had a dominant skill player other than Tyjae Spears, who hasn’t played since the first half of game 3.
Or will someone like Amare Jones break out and have a great all-around game with 50+ yards rushing and 50+ yards receiving? Can Mykel Jones and Phat Watts shake off the drops and play a drop free game? If so, that could really open up the offense. Does Tyrick James become a big factor in this game? We had a Jacob Robertson sighting last week, and dare I say he looked really good running after the catch. Someone is going to have to raise their level of play and help Michael Pratt.
Control time of possession and the play count.
The time of possession in a Tulsa game in 2020 is almost always close to even. The only game that Tulsa lost the time of possession by more than a minute was ECU, who held the ball for 35:09 to Tulsa’s 24:51. There are two things at the end of the game that I think you’ll see if Tulane ends up winning: (1) Tulane will win the time of possession battle by more than 2 minutes and (2) Tulsa will run 70 plays or fewer.
In Tulane’s wins, opponents have averaged 67.8 plays per game. In Tulane’s losses, that number is 81.25 which is skewed a bit by UCF’s 99 play offensive bonanza. Tulane averages 70.2 plays per game in its wins and 66 plays per game in its losses. In its last three wins, Tulane has run 69, 68 and 69 plays. Tulsa, on the other hand, has averaged 73 plays per game in its wins and 60 plays in its lone loss of the season at Oklahoma State (who ran 64 plays). Tulane needs to keep Tulsa at or below 70 plays for this game. It might mean slowing down the tempo at times, but the slower pace works in Tulane’s favor. If Tulsa gets into the high 70s or low 80s, Tulane is going to lose and probably by more than one score.
Predictions
Make sure to leave your prediction. The closest to the actual score difference will win a FTW sticker.
Last Week: Christian W., you’re the winner from last week for predicting that Tulane would win by 21 (as they ultimately won by 26). Please shoot us a direct message on Twitter or Facebook.
Kelly’s Prediction: Living in Oklahoma these last 11+ years, I have never particularly enjoyed playing Tulsa. First, they invaded our back yard to steal some really good Louisiana recruits (Alex Singleton, DeMaris Johnson and Dexter McCoil to name a few) and then they beat us year after year. While Tulane has fought back to regain some respect the last three years, it’s not enough to make up for the beating Tulane took from 2005-2016. Tulane can finally play spoiler to the Golden Hurricane.
I have been really impressed with what Will Hall has done not only these last three weeks but since the SMU game. The plays are there to be made, we just have to make them more consistently. I think this is going to be an ugly game, but I think Hall will figure out a way to solve Tulsa’s run defense. Michael Pratt will be steady and Tulane will make just enough plays on defense to hold on. Tulane 31 Tulsa 28
JP’s Prediction: Tulane grits this one out and wins, but this is the game that breaks the 30+ point streak for the Greenies.
Tulsa’s defense is big time — that is especially true in their metrics against the run, where the advanced stats show they are the #12 rush defense in the country. It’s going to be a tough day at the office for our guys, but we’ll build several good drives around the passing game as Jha’Quan Jackson delivers a big game.
Tulane 24 - Tulsa 21. Green Wave upset for back to back wins over ranked teams.
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tulane 28, Tulsa 24
tulane 30, tulsa 24