Tulane Men’s Basketball Season in Review + AAC Tournament Preview
Can the Green Wave make a run all the way to March Madness?
By: Ryan Hodes
Back in ancient history (November 2021), Tulane’s men's basketball season was off to a disastrous start. In the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Green Wave went 3-6, including four losses to teams outside KenPom’s top 150. They took a brutal home loss to Southern University in just their second game, and got swept by Charleston; not exactly world-beaters.
The most excruciating part of these losses was that five out of the six came by five points or fewer. In fact, Tulane still ranks No. 20 in the NCAA in KenPom’s “luck” metric. Essentially what this means is the randomness of late-game outcomes did not fall in Tulane’s favor, and they are better than their record might indicate.
So it’s not all that surprising that Tulane—fresh off a three-week COVID pause—blew through their early AAC schedule, going 4-1 and picking up wins against Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wichita St (the latter two came on the road).
While the Green Wave haven’t remained quite as hot to finish the year, they still finished with a 10-8 record—their most AAC wins ever—and have played competitively against top teams like Houston, Memphis, and SMU.
And this isn’t some fluke hot streak; this is the payoff of a proven coach laying the groundwork and cultivating a culture of success. Head coach Ron Hunter, in his third year at Tulane, has managed to resuscitate a dying program, pulling them out of their perennial basement spot in the American, and brought student and fan excitement back to the basketball program. I’ll have a season-in-review piece coming out once the season is over, in which I’ll go into more detail, but what Hunter and his staff have done in year three of their tenure has been nothing short of spectacular.
But that’s enough about the past, let’s talk about the upcoming American Athletic Conference Tournament.
American Athletic Conference Tournament Preview
Tulane comes into the AAC tournament with a No. 5 seed, meaning they get a valuable first-round bye. Their first game is Friday at 2 pm CT against 4-seeded Temple, and if they win that they will likely play top-dog Houston in the semis before any number of teams in the championship game.
Do the Green Wave have what it takes to string together three straight wins against quality competition and earn an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament? Well, in my eyes Tulane’s chances of making a run are contingent on the health of star PG Jalen Cook, who leads the team in scoring (18.0 PPG), assists (3.5 APG), and is tied with Sion James in steals (1.6 SPG). A sophomore LSU transfer, Cook has been a revelation for the Wave, and although they’ve managed pretty well without him, Houston will be a tough out without him.
Cook is expected to be a game-time decision for Thursday’s game against Temple, but will likely be limited if he plays. If he is out, the Wave will rely heavily on guards Jaylen Forbes and Sion James, along with up-and-comer Jaden Coleman, to pick up the slack.
Opponent Previews
No. 4 Temple (17-11, 10-7) and Tulane split their regular season this year, with each team picking up a win at home. Temple is ranked 107th in KenPom, but just 188th in offensive efficiency. They are a poor three-point shooting team at only 31.1% from deep, and they rank bottom 100 in defensive turnover percentage.
Temple’s poor shooting is fortunate for Tulane, as 45.6% of the Wave’s field goals allowed have come from three on the season, good for 15th highest in the NCAA. Additionally, Tulane should be able to win the turnover battle, as they rank 12th in offensive TO% and 67th in defensive TO%.
The Owls are, however, a good rebounding team; they rank top 50 in offensive rebounding percentage. Tulane struggles on the glass as they are relatively undersized, so they’ll need to find a way of preventing the rebounding margin from getting too out of hand. In Tulane’s win over Temple, they were out-rebounded 43-37 (-5), but in their loss, they performed even worse on the glass, getting out-rebounded 45-28 (-17).
This should be a close matchup; both teams have distinct matchup advantages that should balance out. Jalen Cook struggled in Tulane’s win over Temple, scoring only 8 points and registering a measly 64 Offensive Rating (he averages 107.2). So even if he doesn’t play or is limited, I like Tulane to get it done.
Prediction: Tulane wins, 74-72.
No. 1 Houston (26-5, 15-3) enters the AAC tournament off a blowout road loss to Memphis, but there’s no denying that they are still top dog in the conference. Kelvin Sampson’s team has been really impressive, despite losing two of their best players (Marcus Sasser & Tramon Mark) early in the year. The Cougars swept Tulane in their two meetings, but the Green Wave competed in a way I’ve rarely seen them compete against Houston.
The Cougars, quite frankly, are a matchup nightmare for the Wave. Tulane is bottom-50 in the country in offensive rebounds allowed, and offensive rebounding has been engrained in Houston’s DNA for years; they rank 4th in the country this year. Houston is stingy on defense, ranking 13th in defensive efficiency, 6th in effective FG%, and 16th in 3P% allowed. At this juncture, Houston is simply bigger, more athletic, and flat-out better. So how does the Green Wave pick up a win against the odds?
Matchup advantages are hard to come by for Tulane, but two things immediately jump out at me. First off, turnovers. While Houston is 25th in defensive TO%, they are only 96th in offensive TO%. This means Tulane, who is good on both offense and defense, can make up some possessions they’ll inevitably lose on the glass by winning the turnover battle. Additionally, Houston is bottom-75 in free throws allowed, meaning Tulane can take advantage of this by driving hard to the bucket and getting free points at the line.
Tulane’s execution will need to be flawless, and they’ll ultimately need to have a strong three-point shooting night in order to knock off Houston. Hopefully, Jalen Cook will be good to go in some capacity for this game, but either way, I truly believe Tulane has an outside shot of winning.
Shameless homer pick: Tulane wins 66-63.
If Tulane makes the championship, I may try and get a preview out for whoever their opponent is; there are too many possibilities to go over at this point. I'll be crossing my fingers it’s not Memphis, as they’re one of the hottest teams in the country, but Tulane is capable of winning against any team in the conference.
Whatever happens in the AAC tournament, this has already been a massive success of a season. And with how young Tulane’s roster is, it seems all but certain that next year will be even better. We’ve already landed a spot in the Cayman Islands Classic, alongside teams like LSU, Kansas State, and Nevada. Building a strong SOS will be key in competing for an at-large NCAA tournament resume, so I hope the athletics staff is working on scheduling stronger opponents than we faced this year.
Roll Wave!
Ryan Hodes (find me on Twitter @the_B1G_boy)