What a difference a few weeks can make. The last preview we sent out feels like it was from a lifetime ago. Since the AAC title game we have a new coach, different starting quarterback, multiple players in the portal, players committed to other teams playing one last game for the Wave and many players who have recommitted to going to the CFB playoff next year with Coach Jon Sumrall. It’s quite a lot to keep up with. The coaches and players who have stuck around for this game deserve a ton of credit and support. To Coach Nagle: THANK YOU for holding this team together and being a leader and a Tulane guy.
Enjoy the game today!
Preview by Jake Weinstock:
Happy Holidays and Happy Bowl Game Day, Green Wave fans. Thank you all for allowing me another season of finding my way into your e-mail inboxes and Twitter feeds. I cannot wait to see what lies ahead for all of us. Thank you to Kelly Comarda for letting me do this every week, in the service of the Collective.
This afternoon, amidst frigid rain, the #23 ranked Tulane Green Wave, 11-2 (8-1) will look to win their twelfth game for a second season in a row, which would be a first in school history. Further, with a win, the Tulane would finish back-to-back seasons ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since Red Dawson’s squads did it in 1938 and 1939. Standing in their way is ACC foe Virginia Tech, 6-6 (5-3), who overcame a 1-3 start and non-conference losses in September to Purdue, Rutgers, and Marshall in order to achieve bowl-eligibility. The Hokies are in search of their first win of the season over an opponent that finished the regular season above .500, this year, but do not underestimate how well they have played over the season’s final two months.
Virginia Tech can and will rush the passer. They rank 10thnationally (out of 133 FBS qualifiers) with 3.2 sacks per game, and they maintain the nation’s 7th best pass rush grade, as a team, by Pro Football Focus. That has expectedly translated to an excellent pass defense, as the Hokies are surrendering just 6.5 yards per pass attempt (20th lowest such average in the country). Tech has the 22nd best total defense, 50th best scoring defense, 34thbest third-down defense, and is forcing the 18th most punts per offensive score from their opponents. Certainly points could be at a premium for the Tulane offense, today, who will be without several pass catchers and of course, Michael Pratt.
The expectation is that Kai Horton and Justin Ibieta will both see snaps for the Wave. Horton started the Ole Miss and Southern Miss games in September when Pratt was sidelined with a knee injury suffered on opening night against South Alabama. He filled in admirably for Pratt, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with just 2 turnover-worthy plays over the course of 73 dropbacks. He will need to be more efficient keeping the ball and himself off the ground, however, as his adjusted completion percentage is just 58.6% and his pressure-to-sack percentage is an eye-popping 26.9% (generally, quarterbacks want to be at or below 10-12%). The latter statistic is especially concerning, given the Hokies pass rush. Interim Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator Slade Nagle will need to figure out how to most effectively slow the pass rush, be it screens, play action, or pocket movement.
Ibieta, a redshirt sophomore, has worked his way back from season-ending shoulder injuries in both 2021 and then again in 2022. Ibieta started Tulane’s thrilling 2022 overtime win in Houston, went 5/5 on the opening possession, moved the Wave inside the 10 yard line, and then suffered the aforementioned shoulder injury before that series’ conclusion. With its full compliment of running backs, Tulane may want to test Virginia Tech on the ground, today. While the Hokies’ pass rush and coverage units are excellent, they’ve been more susceptible to the run, this season, allowing a 4.3 yards per attempt.
Tulane’s defense, especially without Darius Hodges and JariusMonroe, faces a challenge as well. Virginia Tech’s offense ranks 54th in points per game (28.6), 39th in points per play, and has run for 4.7 yards per carry, which is the 32nd best average in the FBS. While they have thrown for a respectable 7.5 yards per pass attempt, the offense revolves around the running game, as only 34 FBS teams called designed rushes on a higher percentage of offensive snaps, this season. Therein lies the key, however. While the Hokies’ offensive numbers all appear above average, there’s one vulnerability that stands out in particular: they have the country’s 27th worst conversion rate on 3rd down. With no opt outs or portal entries among Tulane’s interior defensive line or healthy linebackers, a key to Green Wave success will likely be eliminating successful carries when the Hokies attempt to run on early downs (1st and 2nd down), thereby forcing pre-determined pass attempts on late downs (3rd and 4th down).
Predictions:
Jake: I would love to see a Tulane win today, for the upperclassmen that didn’t opt out, for Coach Nagle and the fellow honorable coaches that are still here, and for a program looking to continue its momentum into 2024 with the best head coaching hire of this year’s cycle. The weather could be an equalizer, much like the Mutara Nebula, but I worry Tulane may not have enough firepower to get this one done. Virginia Tech 24-20.
Kelly: I have been mostly wrong this season, and I hope I’m wrong again. Teams who are transitioning to a new coach have typically not performed well in bowl games. When you add the opt-outs, you have to wonder how the Wave will hold up against a team who will be playing in front of a “home” crowd. If Tulane is going to win this game, we’ll have to play a lot like Navy in it’s home stadium: run the ball, play good defense and shorten the game. I just don’t think the Wave will get it done on offense. Regardless of the outcome of this game, I could not be more bullish on the future of Tulane football under Coach Sumrall. That officially starts tomorrow. Today, give me Virginia Tech 20-17.