Just a few minutes ago, Pete Thamel of ESPN reported that Michael Pratt is a game time decision against Ole Miss due to a knee injury. If we know anything about Michael, he will fight to play no matter what. However, if he can’t go, Kai Horton will assume the reigns at quarterback. You may recall, Horton got the start against #2 Cincinnati in 2021 and came in on the second series last year against Houston and led the Wave to victory. Pratt may very well be the starting quarterback today but keep in mind that Jake Weinstock created this preview before this news broke. Check out our twitter feed (@ftwcollective) for our post-game podcast which should be available a couple of hours after the game.
Preview by Jake Weinstock
‘Yulman Stadium was built for games like this,’ Kendall Duncan of WDSU aptly pointed out, this week. On Saturday at 2:30 pm (ESPN2), Tulane will host a ranked “Power Conference” opponent for the first time at Yulman Stadium as Ole Miss makes the trip down I-55 from Oxford.
Nearly two years ago, after an hours-long rain delay, the Green Wave fell in Oxford 61-21 to an Ole Miss team that was bound for the Sugar Bowl. The head coaches remain the same, but the offensive and defensive coordinators for each program have changed, as have the vast majority of both rosters in this transfer portal era.
The conversation regarding the Rebels is impossible to begin anywhere but with their offense and Head Coach, Lane Kiffin. The Ole Miss offense wants to play fast. Very fast. Huddling will be restricted to a minimum, if it happens at all. Only four (4) FBS teams ran more plays per game in 2022 than the Rebels, with an average of 78.8 offensive snaps per contest. With Kiffin’s current personnel, he has leaned into the running game far more than the casual fan would expect. Ole Miss called a designed run play on an astonishing 60.0% of their offensive snaps in 2022, which was the ninth (9th) highest percentage, nationally.
Gone is quarterback Matt Corral (a third-round selection of the Carolina Panthers in the 2022 draft), but Quinshon Judkins remains. Judkins finished last season with 1,567 yards on 275 carries (5.7 yards per attempt), with 16 touchdowns, and an average of 3.38 yards after contact. Expect a heavy dose of Judkins, on Saturday, who has surpassed 22 rushing attempts in his last seven (7) games against FBS opponents. The Ole Miss offense, while run heavy, is both dynamic and explosive. Kiffin does a great job of putting defenders in conflict and forcing players in the back seven to make quick decisions, usually while on their heels. It is not without imperfection, however, as the Rebels missed at least one assigned block on 10.7% of designed rushes last season, according to Sports Information Solutions, which was the 94th lowest such percentage in the FBS (131 qualifiers).
The zone run game is the foundation, with plenty of misdirection mixed in, but there are almost always a ton of deep shots taken by returning starting quarterback Jaxson Dart (who took over in 2022, following Corral’s departure). Dart’s average depth of target last season was 10.6 yards per attempt. To put that into perspective for Green Wave fans, it was higher than both that of Michael Pratt and Caleb Williams, neither of which reached 10.0. That said, Dart was significantly more reckless with the football, and should present an opportunity or two for the Green Wave to capitalize with an interception. This marriage of the running game and the deep passing game presents an intriguing decision for every opposing defense; how and where to deploy the second safety, and how many defenders can be responsibly allocated to the box.
The expectation here is that Coach Wood plays this game much as he did in the first week of the 2022 season, when he coordinated a Troy defense that performed admirably against these same Ole Miss Rebels, despite falling 28-10 in Oxford. If that ends up being the case, expect a lot of two-high shells from the Green Wave defense with off coverage and lighter boxes. Tulane’s goal, then, would be to try and control the running game with 6 or 7 box defenders, remove any and all explosive plays from the table (ideally), and thereby reduce variance (i.e. opportunities for explosive plays either by the offense, or against the offense). While the Ole Miss receiving core has a trio of talented options (Tre Harris, a Louisiana Tech transfer, Jordan Watkins, and Ayden Williams, a true freshman), one of Tulane’s strengths is its revamped cornerback room.
Controlling and slowing the Rebel running game would obviously be a priority, but getting Dart on the ground will be no small feat, regardless of how many pass rushers Wood sends his way. Few quarterbacks were better at avoiding sacks last season than Dart, who, while pressured 146 times on 415 dropbacks, was only taken down for 14 sacks. As a point of comparison, Michael Pratt was pressured at a similar rate in 2022; 119 times on 409 dropbacks, but opposing defenses were able to convert those 119 pressures into 29 sacks, more than double that of Dart’s total. It’s easy to understand, then, why this Rebel offense was the nation’s 11th best on 3rd downs in 2022 and was tied with Tulane for 0.6 punts per offensive score, which was the 16th best mark, nationally.
Flipping over to the other side of the ball, Ole Miss generated 2.8 sacks per game in 2022, which was 22ndbest in the nation. Cedric Johnson and Jared Ivy, their two returning edge rushers received much-deserved offseason recognition, as the two had pressure rates of 14.7% and 9.0%, last year. Much of the Rebel defense is unknown, however, as there are a great number of transfers that have stepped into the lineup, such as starting outside cornerback Zamari Walker, a 6th year player who came over this spring from Georgia Tech, where he had amassed over 1,100 collegiate snaps and was coming off his best season, in 2022. Another player that has the Ole Miss faithful excited in Oxford is true freshman linebacker Suntarine Perkins, a still-thin but exceptionally athletic player. This will be new defensive coordinator Pete Goldring’s first major test this season, after coming over from Alabama, where he held the same position on Nick Saban’s staff.
Given what the Tulane offense did and did not put on tape in Week 1, their first outing after the departure of Tyjae Spears, I would expect that Ole Miss’s number one priority is to contain the Tulane passing game, and their newly showcased stable of explosive receivers. As a reminder, Tulane had four (4) receivers each catch at least one pass of thirty (30) yards or more, last week; Lawrence Keys, Chris Brazzell, Dontae Fleming, and Jha’Quan Jackson. At the same time, Tulane ran for 3.7 yards per attempt, as a team, on 38 attempts. These are facts that will not be lost on Goldring, who will likely play with lighter boxes, daring both the Green Wave ground game to get going, and forcing Tulane to be efficient and accurate in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
PREDICTION:
Jake: In the hardest regular season game to predict in a while, I have Tulane coming out on top, 31-27. So much of this sport comes down to who has the better quarterback, and that’s an advantage that I believe Tulane has, yet again, this week.
Kelly: This was a tough game to handicap even before the questions about Pratt’s availability. I still think Pratt will play but will be more limited to a traditional pocket passer role. Tulane has plenty of weapons and will use a controlled passing attack to get the ball out of the QBs hands and take some shots over the top. Tulane controls the clock and time of possession and takes this one late in the 4th 34-31 Tulane.