What happened to Tulane Football?
We deep dive the challenges for Green Wave football after a 1-6 start ahead of #2 Cincy
Preview by Kelly Comarda and JP Gooderham. You can find FTW on Twitter (@fearthewaveblog).
Tulane Football (1-6) will face its second #2-ranked opponent of the season -- the #2 Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0). It’s a bit like a funhouse mirror. On one side, Tulane opened the season by punching above its weight and raising the hopes of Green Wave fans. Now, heading into Cincy, Willie Fritz is now trying to stabilize a program that has descended into disappointment.
At the time of writing, the undefeated Bearcats are a 27-point favorite to not just win but dominate this game. No Willie Fritz team at Tulane has been a 25 point or more underdog in a conference game, with the last such instance coming in 2015 when Curtis Johnson’s Wave played against Memphis.
This game was always going to be an incredible test, with Cincinnati’s vision fully focused on shifting the paradigm of College Football and the Playoff era.
To make matters worse, Fritz confirmed in his media remarks this week that Tulane starter Michael Pratt was out of practice while under concussion protocol after suffering a vicious hit against SMU while beginning his slide. While Fritz did not count Pratt out completely to play on Saturday, our expectation at FTW is that Pratt did not practice this week, and we should expect Kai Horton, a true freshman out of Carthage, TX, to be called to action for his first career start.
In lieu of our traditional game preview, we’re going to take a look at the view from 30,000 feet. Fritz has ascended to bring the Wave to three consecutive bowl games to mark a notable first for the program. In turn, he elevated the hopes of Tulane fans that the Wave was poised to take the next logical step: to compete for the league. As late as this summer, folks -- like The Athletic story below -- speculated that Tulane could even become the Coastal Carolina-esque “Cinderella story, former greenskeeper at Augusta” breakout team of 2021. Instead, the Green Wave will almost inevitably see its bowl streak come to a close this week.
In this piece, we ask the question: what went wrong for Tulane Football -- across the offense, defense, recruiting, and scheduling -- and what can be fixed?
Kelly’s Keys
This is not the season that Tulane players, coaches or fans thought it would be. Sitting at 1-6 with #2 Cincinnati coming into Yulman ready to put the nail in the coffin of Tulane’s bowl hopes. I have to wonder what else is in that coffin? Maybe it’s some of the offensive schemes that have been unsuccessful. Maybe it’s the jobs of some of our assistant coaches. Judging by the response on the internet, there are some Tulane fans who believe that Willie Fritz’s job should be in that coffin. Before we get too dramatic, I think it’s important to take a step back and do some self-scouting.
Offense
Can Chip Long adjust?
Offensively, Tulane has taken a big step back this year. Whether it’s the players struggling to adapt to Chip Long’s system or Chip Long not adjusting to the talents of his players, Tulane has at times been anemic on offense. Sure, there have been glimpses. We got off to a hot start against Oklahoma and had a good sequence of offense against ECU and Houston, but otherwise, we’ve been spotty at best. We haven’t been able to run the ball with any consistency and have done an awful job protecting Michael Pratt.
The worst thing we’ve done is put too much on Pratt. Coming into this season, Pratt had played 10 college games and is adjusting to a new offense. Yet, we’ve overloaded him with decision after decision. It seems like every play, Pratt is making a choice on a run-pass option or a read-option. Sometimes you just need to let the kid hand the ball off or throw a quick screen. What has happened is teams are overplaying the running back and letting Pratt run with the ball. They are trading a few yards for a hit on the QB. And the result has been that Pratt is concussed and has suffered injuries to his shoulder and knee. He’s not going to survive if something doesn’t change.
I was fired up with our decision to hire Chip Long not so much because of what he did at Notre Dame but what he did at Memphis. I thought that this offense would look something like Memphis’ 2016 offense with quick throws, screens and a good running game. This offense looks nothing like that offense. We haven’t done much to get the ball to Jha’Quan Jackson, one of our best playmakers. We finally targeted him deep last week against SMU and hit 2 long pass plays. Where has this been all year? Why aren’t we doing more with Ygenio Booker in the pass game or Deuce Watts, another playmaker who hoped to produce a big season? Why is Tyjae Spears not more involved now that he looks healthy? There is no reason on Earth that Michael Pratt should have the most carries on our team, but he sits as the leader at 73. The Tulane offense has failed to capitalize on its talent this season.
This isn’t an easy fix, and it’s going to require a lot of soul searching by Willie Fritz. He must decide whether Chip Long can get the most out of the roster or whether Long’s offensive philosophy is in line with what Fritz wants to do. Fritz came to Tulane wanting to run the ball and after 3 years realized that he needed to develop the pass game or Tulane was not going to win many games. Will Hall was a good fit and took our offense to a new level, but it still felt like the passing offense was lacking when we needed it. The transition to Chip Long was supposed to be seamless, but it has been anything but. The offense that Long is running just doesn’t suit Michael Pratt’s talents.
Watching SMU and Houston, I can’t help but think that Pratt would be better off in a balanced form of the Air Raid. SMU, in particular, does an incredible job of scheming plays so that the QB does not take many hits. There’s s always an outlet receiver or a relatively safe throw to bail the QB out when he needs it. Houston has been less successful avoiding sacks with Clayton Tune at QB but Tune still hasn’t taken nearly the beating that Michael Pratt has. Pratt has only been sacked 17 times, but he’s avoided 10-15 more sacks by gaining minimal yardage while still taking a hit. You may be thinking that SMU and Houston throw the ball a lot more than Tulane and that they are predominantly passing offenses, but you’d be wrong. SMU is almost exactly at 50/50 in their run to pass split. Houston runs the ball 4 times more per game than it passes. Tulane is at 36 rushes per game and 34 pass attempts. Those other schools just scheme it a lot better than we do.
The verdict: I don’t think that Chip Long and Willie Fritz were a match made in heaven. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a mutual parting of the ways at the end of the season. If that happens, it will be interesting to see whether Fritz reverts to a more conservative approach or continues to probe ways to make this passing game more explosive. If Long stays, the offense must be more tailored to our talents.
Defense
Chris Hampton was hired to replace Jack Curtis and help prevent big plays. So far, that experiment has been a total failure. The million-dollar question is why has it been a failure? Is it because we aren’t getting to the quarterback? Is it because we aren’t talented enough on the back end? Are we not stout enough up the middle? Or is the scheme just bad?
I’m not as convinced that the defensive issues have been the product of poor scheme. In watching tape this year, I’ve noticed a couple of things: confusion and freelancing. Don’t get me wrong, both of these issues are serious issues and reflect on the coaches, but they are also fixable. I’ve seen time after time 10 guys doing the right thing and one guy missing a fit in the run game, doesn’t properly setting the edge or plays man when everyone else is playing zone in the pass game. The question becomes whether this is a product of a staff who is just trying to do too much and confusing the players or if it’s a few guys who just can’t seem to get the defense.
I believe that most of the defensive schemes have been fine, but we haven’t executed them. Fritz recently referred to “mental mistakes” on defense, and I agree with that assessment. Rarely do I feel like we’ve done something to put one of our defenders in an unfair matchup like I did under Jack Curtis. However, there are a couple of veteran players on this defense who have played well below expectations this year and one who has good numbers but who has made his fair share of mistakes. I’m not going to call out individual players in an article.
I’m sure the coaches are calling them out in film sessions, but these are guys we were counting on to play well who have made colossal mistakes that have resulted in huge plays and touchdowns. Sometimes the mistakes are as simple as trying to run around a block to make a big play instead of taking on a blocker to make the smart play. Willie Fritz made a comment that he and his staff are taking measures to cut down the mental mistakes on defense including getting the game plan done earlier so that the defense has more time to digest it. Hopefully we see a difference.
The verdict: While Tulane fans are calling for his head, I think we’ll see Chris Hampton back for 2022. Many of the issues on defense are correctable, and I think Hampton is a coach that has the respect of the players. He’s a hard worker, and while this season has not been good, I can see him turning this around as he learns how to be a coordinator.
Recruiting
Recruiting has been a topic of conversation on the message boards since coaches mentioned difficulty getting help from the Tulane admissions office. Admissions has always been a hot topic of conversation among fans. Does Tulane really want to win? Are we willing to do what it takes to compete at the highest level? Is the Tulane administration and board just paying lip service to fans and continuing to do business as usual? Those are all fair questions, especially when it comes to recruiting.
I have always been of the mindset that if a player is NCAA eligible, we should admit him. Why should we deny a student admission because he scored one point lower on a standardized test than you wanted him to? Does that really make him any less likely to succeed? As a Tulane graduate, I can say this: if you go to class and avail yourself of the tutoring that is offered, it’s not that hard to succeed at Tulane academically. I also believe that we have a duty as a university to take kids who may not have had the advantages of private schools and coach them up academically. Planting flowers and picking up trash is nice, but if you want to really give back to the community, educate the people who wouldn’t ordinarily get the opportunity. If we are truly a university committed to the New Orleans and greater Louisiana community, why is it so challenging for the Tulane staff to get academically eligible players from this state into the program?
How many kids are we forced to take off our recruiting board because they don’t meet our academic qualifications? How many chances have we lost to gain a foothold at a local high school because we couldn’t take a player because of academics? That same kid goes to ULL and the next year, the best player from his high school (who probably does meet our criteria) follows him and on and on and on. It’s a vicious cycle. We have made little progress recruiting locally and I don’t think it’s due to a lack of effort.
Overall, our recruiting has been in the middle of the pack of the AAC, while schools like SMU and Cincinnati have built “Power Five” quality classes. There are certain positions that we have recruited pretty well: defensive line, linebackers, running back and tight end come to mind. And other positions, like offensive line, defensive back and wide receiver, that have been our Achilles heel. From 2016-2019, quarterback was our biggest hole on the roster, but if everything holds, we’ll have 4 good quarterbacks on the roster next year.
Over the next two recruiting cycles, we must do a better job of recruiting receivers, defensive backs and offensive linemen. We must have enough fire power on offense to throw the ball whenever we want to and protect the quarterback in the process. On defense, we have to find 2-3 defensive backs every year who have a chance to play for us.
Finally, we must do a much better job in the transfer portal understanding that most players from the portal do not work out for one reason or another. Relying on the transfer portal is not a winning strategy, and I hope to see us go there less and less.
Recruiting has improved under Fritz, but it still isn’t where it needs to be. We are winning some battles that we did not win before, but we’re also losing battles to schools like La Tech and ULL that we should be winning. Local recruiting has to improve as well, even if that means hiring some local coaches or recruiters who can get us into local schools. Darion Monroe is sitting on UCF’s staff as a graduate assistant coach after stints at Troy and Mississippi College. You want someone who can recruit the hell out of South Louisiana? Go hire Deebo as an analyst or an assistant and see what happens. If we don’t take the next step under Coach Fritz, it’s going to be in large part because we couldn’t recruit a quarterback from 2016-2019 and have not been able to recruit enough good offensive linemen, defensive backs or receivers.
Scheduling
One of my biggest issues with Tulane football in 2021 is the schedule. I know fans don’t want to hear about the schedule, but I feel like we were set up to fail just to make some money. Tulane has no business playing Oklahoma and Ole Miss in the same season, especially at the beginning of the year. That is a recipe for failure. We went to Oklahoma and played hard and nearly came away with a victory but then got our souls snatched from us against Ole Miss and got a lot of guys injured in the process. The overwhelming odds were that we would start this season 1-2 and then turn around and play a veteran UAB team in a very important game. Hurricane or no hurricane, this schedule made no sense.
What is our goal as a team? To win a conference title and get on the level of a Cincinnati where we could go to a New Year’s 6 bowl or the playoff? That’s my goal. UCF did it.Cincinnati did it. Memphis did it. Did they do it by scheduling multiple good P5 teams and beating them? No, they didn’t. They did it in a much smarter way which I will explain later. You know who has scheduled multiple P5 games this year? Tulsa, USF, Temple and Tulane. I bet you know what all these schools have in common: a losing record. Cincinnati scheduled Indiana and Notre Dame this year with some foresight that they’d be good, but they are the exception. They didn’t schedule multiple P5’s to get to this point. They did it to kick the door down.
How do you make noise in the college football world? You win games. As a G5 what you need to do is beat one mediocre to bad P5 team, win your conference and scream and yell that you get no respect. In 2017 UCF went undefeated and claimed that they were national champions. Their big P5 regular season win that year? They beat 8 loss Maryland on the road. Their other non-conference games were FIU and Austin Peay. In 2018, UCF beat 7 loss Pittsburgh at home. Their other non-conference games were against South Carolina State and Florida Atlantic. They scheduled a game against 9 loss North Carolina that was cancelled. Again, UCF was coming off an undefeated year and trying to make the playoff. That year, UCF went undefeated and lost to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. The next year they scheduled 2 Power 5 teams thinking they were going to challenge for another playoff spot and got upended against Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati started gaining traction in 2018. That year, they beat a 9 loss UCLA team. Their other non-conference games were against Miami (Ohio), Alabama A&M and Ohio. Cincinnati went 10-2 in the regular season and put the college football world on notice that they were a team on the rise. The next year? They played two P5 teams beating UCLA again before getting shut out by Ohio State. Again, they went 10-2 in the regular season and lost the conference title game to Memphis. In 2020, the Bearcats played Army and Austin Peay on their way to an undefeated regular season. That got them a Peach Bowl invite. This year, coming off three straight 10 win seasons, Cincinnati scheduled Notre Dame and Indiana knowing that this is their chance to knock down the door to the playoff. Cincinnati didn’t play these games in week 1 either, they played two tune-up games to get the kinks out and build confidence. They also had a bye between Indiana and Notre Dame. It was a well thought out plan and they have executed it perfectly to date.
Memphis played in the Cotton Bowl in 2019. How did they get there? By beating an 8 loss Ole Miss team at home and then playing Southern, South Alabama and ULM. SMU has a chance to do big things this year if they beat Cincinnati. They played Abilene Christian, North Texas and La Tech before beating a mediocre TCU team.
The formula is there. It’s simple. One FCS game. Two G5 teams. One Power 5 team down on its luck. Then you win in conference. That is how you make noise as a G5 team until you’re ready to ascend like Cincinnati this year. Hell, Coastal Carolina’s big win last year was Kansas until it could schedule BYU on the fly. By that point, they already had everyone’s attention. It may be sacrilege to say, but Tulane’s 1998 schedule was very soft to the point where we knew if we got past Southern Miss in week 3, it was probably going to be smooth sailing to an undefeated regular season. Do we go undefeated playing a couple of P5 teams that year? Some Tulane fans will swear we would have, but I really don’t know. The point is, it doesn’t cheapen our success that we didn’t beat Oklahoma or Ole Miss that year. We can forever say that we would’ve beaten Tennessee, Nebraska or Florida State in a bowl game and we’ll never be wrong for it.
This 2021 Tulane schedule even before the hurricane was a mess. We’ve got to realize that we can’t play these games just for money. Next year’s schedule? Perfect. We start the season with UMass at home followed by Alcorn State before traveling to Kansas State in week 3 and coming back to play Southern Miss in week 4. Bad G5 followed by FCS followed by P5 team and then bad G5. We get two weeks to work out the kinks against teams we should beat and then we get a test against a P5 team that won’t be challenging for a national title. If we beat Kansas State, we’re on the map. We’ll start the season 4-0 and everyone will be talking about how Tulane should be ranked. But at worst we’d expect to be 3-1 with some confidence going into conference play. This year, we left Ole Miss looking like we had just been told we had a terminal diagnosis.
Future schedules don’t look so favorable to Tulane. If I’m Troy Dannen, I’d get on the phone and try to do some smoothing of these future schedules especially in years where we’re expected to play two away games against P5 teams. Let’s not play Ole Miss and Mississippi State in the same season. Let’s not play Oklahoma and Kansas State back to back.
If we get an invite to the Big XII? Great, then we get the resources to build our team, but don’t get it twisted, there will be a 3-5 year window where we’re likely going to be in the basement of that league. Until then, we have to win some games and build confidence.
The verdict: We need to do a better job of putting our team in a position to succeed. Follow the model that is already there.
The Takeaway
Tulane continues to deal with self-inflicted and unforced errors specifically related to admissions and scheduling. Those have to be cleaned up if Tulane is going to take the next step. Willie Fritz is going to be Tulane’s coach in 2022 barring some unforeseen development. I would be surprised if both coordinators survive this year, and I don’t think the current offensive scheme fits the Green Wave roster. If Tulane can finally find the right scheme on offense and clean up the mistakes on defense, the schedule is favorable next year for the Wave to bounce back and win 7 or more games in the regular season.
Cincinnati Predictions
Leave your predictions (or thoughts on the piece) below in the comments.
Kelly’s Prediction: This one could get ugly, fast. With Michael Pratt likely out, I see this one ending 42-7 with the Bearcats calling off the dogs around halftime like they did against UCF and resting most of their players in the second half.
JP’s Prediction: I think unfortunately, the Bearcats will be in attack mode to avenge a perceived weak performance against Navy last Saturday. While Horton could develop into an important part of Tulane’s future offense, he’ll need to navigate a virtually unwinnable situation on Saturday. I don’t expect the Tulane offense to be able to do much, and a beleaguered Green Wave defense will be in big trouble after many explosive plays. Cincy 62 - Tulane 10
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Ole Miss has been a "down on their luck P5" for years, until they hired Kiffin last year and turned it around in a hurry. UAB was a joke of a team barely back to football when we scheduled them.
This schedule was nearly perfect on paper when we inked the deals, but it's hard to predict 6 years out. Next year's schedule is TOO soft, though it might be a good hting considering how we tanked this year as a rebound year.
Softening the schedule will almost certainly hamper our recruiting, especially given the new composition of the AAC. Dannen said we spent four years using the OU game as a recruiting pitch. This year was a very tough schedule, but we expected to be good and had a chance to prove it to the world. We came damn close vs OU, then the wheels fell off.
Non-conference games are scheduled years in advance, so it will always be an inexact science. Cincinnati scheduled this year's Indiana game back in 2014. They scheduled the ND game in the Spring of 2019. Yes, they were turning the corner by then, but let's face it - you play ND when the Irish say they have an opening, not when it's optimum for you. The Bearcats didn't shy away from that schedule and now they have a chance to make history.
As for UCF, had they managed to schedule (and play) a notable P5 in 2017 or 2018, they likely would have had the same opportunity. Not many teams were going to beat them in 2017. Just ask Auburn.
Like you, I'm okay with next year's schedule. But if we embrace it as a formula, we're putting a very visible cap on our potential success, and recruits will see it. Let's schedule smart but continue to challenge ourselveves.
Roll Wave