Why Boise State did not flip to the AAC

An analysis of Boise State's internal exploration of conference realignment

In the wake of Big 12 realignment, the next domino to fall seemed like it would have been pushed by the AAC. Commissioner Mike Aresco was believed to be lobbying schools like Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Air Force behind the scenes to join.

This was a reasonable question: the AAC has captured the New Year’s Six bid awarded to the top Group of Five team in every season since 2016 (when Western Michigan went to the Cotton Bowl), while the Mountain West has been boxed out since Boise State’s 2014 season.

Fast forward to October, and it’s expected that these Mountain West schools will stay in place. In turn, there was some discussion as to whether this signaled that the AAC was weakening or even could be prime for the taking if a school like SMU would jump to the Mountain West.

We took a look at Boise State’s path to their decision using an Open Records request, and it seems like the truth of the matter is this: top teams in both the AAC and Mountain West look at the two leagues as effectively a lateral move.

Meetings Between Boise State and the AAC

First off, was there ever really dialogue between Boise State and the AAC? Yes. There certainly was.

We received records from the past two years of at least four calls between Boise State leadership (including Boise State University President Marlene Tromp) and AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco.

These meetings occurred three times in 2020 (April 1, May 18, and October 5th) with a final sync on September 15th, 2021 during this latest wave of realignment. By September 30, 2021, there were several national media reports that both Boise State and San Diego State would stay in the Mountain West Conference.

So, assuming that the mid-September discussion was the latest after from Aresco to lure Boise State, why did the Broncos ultimately decide to avoid the AAC entirely after seemingly showing interest in 2020?

2021 Report on Boise State’s Conference Prospects

Boise State leadership received a report from consultant MRJ Advisors, a firm operated by a former Athletic Director from the University of Missouri.

Interestingly, this report compared Boise State’s future across three options: remaining in the Mountain West or departing to the AAC or Pac-12. The Big 12 conference was not analyzed in this report, which was produced in February of 2021.

Boise State had long been rumored to be unhappy in the Mountain West Conference, and it appears that leadership kicked off this exploratory project in November of 2020.

Boise State in the AAC or Pac-12

First, Boise State’s consultants compared how Boise State would look against the current AAC members. The Broncos would trail every football-playing public school in the AAC in the area of Total Institutional Support for athletics.

With that said, institutional support is just one slice of the pie when it comes to funding a successful athletics department. When looking at the total revenue landscape, including school contributions, TV money, ticket sales, and more, Boise State would be closer to the average AAC school of today.

By comparison, the consultant looked at total revenue of Boise State vs. the members of the Pac-12. While joining the AAC would not produce a significant different in the department’s revenue, Boise State operates at around half the budget of the average Pac-12 school.

The consultant then projected revenue based on the Pac-12 and AAC averages. If Boise State moved to the AAC, they expected revenue to stay basically flat with the current Mountain West, where they enjoy an oversized chunk of TV revenue thanks to a sweetheart deal they received from the other members. Meanwhile, the Pac-12, as one would expect, would generate a major payday for the program and warrant leaving.

Conclusions: Boise State will wait on P5 membership

In the consultant’s takeaways, the narrative is clear: with Boise State’s current slice of the Mountain West TV deal, it does not make sense for the Broncos to join the AAC.

While the current academic rankings and athletic spending would not make Boise State a preferred fit in the eyes of the Pac-12, the consultant encouraged Boise State to improve in these areas if they want to eventually make the move.

Notably, this report was put together in February of 2021, prior to the announcement that UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati were Big 12 bound. With a potential hit to topline TV revenue on the way should ESPN cut the $1 billion contract announced by Aresco, this would undermine the appeal of the AAC even further.

In the end, moving to the AAC would be akin to a lateral move in the eyes of Boise State decisionmakers with little upside in terms of revenue compared to their current turf. For this reason, it seems like their best bet will be waiting out the musical chairs of realignment with the hope of a massive revenue win one day in the future.