GAME NINE: Tulane @ UCF Preview
Tulane has never won at UCF. Could that change on UCF Homecoming?
Preview by Kelly Comarda and JP Gooderham. You can find FTW on Twitter (@fearthewaveblog).
Tulane Football (1-7) heads back to the Bounce House for the second straight year to face UCF (5-3). Now under the leadership of former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, the Knights stand at 5-3 and hope to notch their sixth win en route to a bowl appearance. While that record does not quite stack up to UCF’s recent successes, the Knights still boast a perfect 4-0 record in their home stadium, known for being as tough an environment as it is structurally questionable.
Of note, UCF not only owns an 8-2 record historically against Tulane but has won all five matchups in Orlando. It would be a true upset for the 13-point underdog Green Wave if they were to find some magic on the road.
While it’s hard to find the positives in a 1-7 season where the Wave is searching for its first win over an FBS opponent, and it’s already November, there are a couple noteworthy items of “good juju.”
First off, the Tulane Defense, to me, played lightyears ahead of what we’ve seen this season against Cincinnati (now #6 in the ESPN Playoff Invitational Rankings). Was that a flash in the pan, or can the Wave hold its footing against opposite a UCF offense that just plastered a 49-7 win on the Temple Owls?
Second, it appears we will be seeing the return of quarterback Michael Pratt. Tulane beat writer Guerry Smith said on Twitter this week:
For those wondering, #Tulane QB Michael Pratt practiced all week, but he still has to get cleared by medical staff Friday to play against UCF. My guess is yes, but I'm not a doctor.
If Pratt is feeling healthy and out of the concussion protocol, we hope to see Tulane build on the run game that we saw in the first half last week (especially the re-emergence of running back Tyjae Spears).
Kelly’s Keys to the UCF Game
Last week we wrote a piece about the state of Tulane football. It angered some people off. It fired some people up. Most importantly, it stirred the pot and got people talking.
The reality is that this is Troy Dannen’s and Willie Fritz’s program to fix, and it will rise or fall on their decisions. What we can do as fans is let them know that we’re not satisfied with how this season has transpired and that we expect more from them. I am a firm believer that people rise and fall to the level of expectations and standards placed on them. The floor of Tulane football is no longer 0, 1 or 2 win seasons. We expect to go to a bowl every year, even in an “off” year. That’s not going to happen this year, but we want to see the Wave finish strong because next year could be set up for a strong run for the Wave. We need that momentum to reach that next level of an 8-9 win regular season. Underclassmen need to look at this as an extended interview for a starting position next year.
Now…on to UCF, another team who has had a down year mostly due to injuries under new head coach Gus Malzahn. With Dillon Gabriel and Josh Robinson missing most of the season, the Golden Knights are grinding out a mundane bowl season. It’s a disappointment to them that they’re likely going to win 8 games. That’s where we want to be. Here are some things to watch for in this game.
Keep Bowser and Richardson in check.
UCF is led by Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson, two talented backs with polar opposite running styles. Bowser is a big, bruising back weighing in at 225 lbs. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but he’s got enough get up and go to hurt you if you miss a tackle or two. Richardson, on the other hand, is all of 5’7 and 170 lbs, but he’s a blur with the ball in his hands. The UCF offense has been far less explosive without Dillon Gabriel, but Richardson gives UCF a big play threat in the running game.
Holding Bowser in check will mean holding him to under 4.0 yards per carry. In UCF’s wins, Bowser averages 22.5 carries and 108 yards for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. In UCF’s losses, Bowser averages 9.5 carries and 35 yards for an average of 3.7 yards per carry. If the Wave can hold Bowser under 4.0 yards per carry, the Wave will have a chance.
Richardson is a different kind of evaluation. In UCF’s last three wins, Richardson has a carry of more than 20 yards. In two of UCF’s three losses, Richardson failed to have a rush of more than 13 yards. When he can generate chunk plays, UCF’s offense is much more effective. Tulane cannot allow any rushes of 20 yards or more by Johnny Richardson.
Make Keene beat you.
Mikey Keene was thrust into starting duty when Dillon Gabriel went out on the last play of the game against Louisville. Keene is a freshman from Arizona who is small in stature but doesn’t run like most smaller quarterbacks do. He’s mobile in a “I’m going to keep the play alive in the pocket” kind of way. Keene has to be riding high coming off his best career game against Temple where he threw for 229 yards and 5 touchdowns.
If Tulane is going to win this game, the Wave defense will have to make Keene look like a freshman. He has thrown interceptions in five straight games, and if the Wave wants to pull off a road upset, they’ll need to grab two picks against Keene. Another key stat to look at is attempts. UCF does not want Keene throwing the ball 30 times in this game. The closer his attempts get to 30, the better chance Tulane has to win.
Grind it out.
Nobody wants Tulane to throw the ball well more than me. I love a good aerial attack, but we just don’t have one. Our receivers are sub-par, our offensive line is not built to pass block, and our quarterbacks have been beaten to a pulp. Last week, the game plan actually reflected how our roster is built. We ran the ball with success against a Cincinnati team built to stop the run. Navy was able to beat UCF by doing what they do best, shortening the game and grinding out a win. If we’re going to pull off an upset, we need to grind it out too.
Expect Tyjae Spears and Cam Carroll to each have 15 carries in this game. If Kai Horton quarterbacks us, I’d be surprised if we see more than 18-20 attempts. If Pratt quarterbacks us, that number could be 20-25, but we’ll skew heavy run in this game. Expect Tulane to be heavy run on first and second down to stay ahead of the chains as much as possible.
No turnovers, no sacks.
It’s hard enough to win on the road if your team is full strength and everything is going well. We’re not full strength and this season has been a train wreck. We’re going to have to play a clean game in order to have a shot. That means no turnovers and few negative plays. Kai Horton, in his first career start, ran us out of field goal range by taking a sack on our first drive. That decision cost us a chance at 3 points and in a close game, that can be the difference between a win and a loss. I expect this game to be close going into the 4th quarter if the Wave can avoid negative plays and turnovers. Tulane is going to have to be +2 or better in turnover differential to win, and if Tulane takes more than 2 sacks, it’s hard to imagine that we’re going to be in position to do much offensively.
Predictions for Tulane @ UCF
FTW folks — leave your prediction in the comments below.
Kelly’s Prediction: I hope Michael Pratt does not play. This season is over in terms of bowl eligibility and it’s in everyone’s best interests to let him heal. I hope that Pratt is an emergency option only if he is cleared to play. Even without Pratt, I think we have a chance in this game if we go back to what we do well…run the ball. With a week under Kai Horton’s belt and with the defense showing some life last week, I can see Tulane giving UCF and Mikey Keene some problems. I’m not picking Tulane to win, but I think the Wave will have a chance to do so late in the game. I just don’t see it happening for us yet. UCF 27 Tulane 21
JP’s Prediction: I think Kelly makes a good point about Pratt’s future… but I think he will play. With either Pratt or Kai Horton, it’s critical that the Wave roll with the old school look of using our running game to keep the clock moving and shorten the battle against a Knights team with offensive firepower.
I have been talking myself into this game as a Homecoming upset opportunity, especially with UCF facing a trip to ranked SMU next week and potentially looking past this one. I’ve picked against the Wave pretty much all season since Ole Miss, so let’s roll the dice. Something good has to happen to this team. Give me a few Spears TDs and a clean, targeted gameplan for a returning Pratt, and let’s breaktrhough. Tulane 28, UCF 24.
You can subscribe to see future FTW posts by entering your email below: